Next migrant wave: May 28-29

Willow Flycatcher at Magee Marsh, late May 2013. Willow and Alder flycatchers are almost identical in appearance, and individual variation in both makes it dangerous to try to identify them by sight.  However, their callnotes are distinctly different: a dry "whit" from Willow, a liquid "kep" from Alder Flycatcher.  Fortunately, this Willow Flycatcher was calling  a lot, and even sang a couple of times.

Saturday, May 25:  An excellent movement of birds during the early part of this last week was pretty much shut down when winds shifted around to the north on Thursday.  By that time, however, the woodlots near Lake Erie had filled up with migrants typical of the third wave.  Flycatchers were abundant, Red-eyed Vireos and American Redstarts had become numerous, and the predominant warblers were late-season birds like Blackpoll, Canada, Wilson's, and Mourning warblers.  The prized find among late species, Connecticut Warbler, proved elusive; one or two were heard or seen along the Magee Marsh boardwalk on some days, but most people have missed the species so far this spring.

After the wind shifted to the north, most of the birds that had been around earlier in the week seemed to be pinned down where they were, so that birding continued to be good on Friday and today.  As often happens with north winds, some of the birds filtered southward away from the Lake Erie shoreline, so that there were many in the woods near BSBO, for example.

At this point on Saturday evening, with winds still out of the northeast, it appears that we won't see much new arrival on Sunday or Monday.  But by Monday night, a high-pressure area to the east of us and a low-pressure center to the west should create a strong flow of air all the way up from the Gulf of Mexico, and this will increase during Tuesday and Tuesday night, along with temperatures getting much warmer again.  So we should see a big turnover on Tuesday May 28 and probably even more on Wednesday morning, May 29.  

After Wednesday, the current forecast shows southerly or southwesterly winds persisting through the latter part of the week, right up to Sunday morning, June 2nd.  Along the Lake Erie shoreline, it's usually possible to find a lot of lingering migrants through the first week of June.  However, these favorable winds are likely to sweep a lot of the migrants on toward their destinations, so things may be getting a little thin by the weekend.  If you are still determined to find that Connecticut Warbler, or to practice on Empidonax flycatchers, you may have better luck if you can get out on the 28th or especially the 29th, rather than waiting for the weekend.  

Of course, even after the songbird migration winds down, we'll still have shorebird passage up through the second week of June... and the first southbound shorebirds of the "fall" will show up before the first of July.  So in reality, in this corner of the world, migration is happening most of the time!  And regardless of the weather conditions, every day holds the potential for exciting discoveries, so it's never a bad day to go birding.

  

Next pushes of migrants expected: Wednesday and next weekend

Tuesday, May 14:  As predicted, today turned out to be a good day for migrants in n.w. Ohio.  The star of the day, without a doubt, was the Kirtland's Warbler found on the East Beach (Wildlife Beach) at Magee Marsh Wildlife Area, seen by many people through most of the day.  Diversity of warblers continued to be good elsewhere in the area as well, along with improved numbers of thrushes, vireos, and others.  

At this point (late evening on Tuesday), all indications are that there's a major movement of birds going on.  The radar picture shows huge numbers migrating over southwestern Ohio, and many of these birds will reach the Lake Erie shoreline by dawn, aided by fairly strong southerly winds.  So Wednesday, May 15, should be an excellent day in any migrant traps in northwestern Ohio.  We'll probably see a lot of turnover, with many birds departing as well as birds arriving, so total numbers may not be strikingly higher, but the mix of birds present should be clearly different from today's.  

After Wednesday morning, the forecast is for the winds to be much more variable for a couple of days, and I don't expect a lot of arriving migrants on Thursday or Friday.  But things could improve on Saturday, May 18, and especially on Sunday and Monday, May 19 & 20, with major weather systems bringing in a strong flow of air from far to the south.  

By Sunday, the composition of the migrant flocks near the lake shore should be noticeably different from what we've seen the last few days.  Numbers of Yellow-rumped, Palm, Nashville, and Black-and-white Warblers should drop. At the same time, we should see a pickup in numbers of Magnolia, Blackpoll, Canada, and Wilson's Warblers, plus Swainson's and Gray-cheeked Thrushes, Red-eyed and Philadelphia Vireos, and several of the flycatchers.  By this weekend we'll also have a reasonable chance of finding Connecticut Warbler, a late-May specialty, although the following weekend is closer to its peak dates.  So there are still plenty of reasons to go birding!

Next influx: May 14, more birds May 15

Quick note on Sunday, May 12:  Yesterday's good numbers and variety of birds are probably mostly pinned down by the chilly temperatures and northwest winds overnight.  Today, they'll be concentrated low on the downwind (east) side of the woods.

According to current weather forecasts, we should have a new arrival of migrants overnight Monday night, making for a new mix of birds on Tuesday, My 14.  But I expect that Wednesday, May 15, will be a much bigger day for numbers, with a lot of migrants coming in on higher temperatures and south winds. 

American White Pelicans were seen over Magee again yesterday.  Keep an eye on the sky for them to circle overhead any time, especially after the day warms up a little. 

Quick update: weekend May 11-12

Friday, May 10:  As predicted in the previous post, we had a good arrival of migrants yesterday and an excellent push today.  Highlights of today's flight included good looks at Golden-winged Warblers, Blue-winged Warblers, and at least 27 other warbler species, lurking Black-billed Cuckoos, surprising numbers of passing Pine Siskins, and a huge morning flight of Blue Jays.  At Magee Marsh, an "Audubon's Warbler" (western form of Yellow-rumped Warbler) was found near the west end of the boardwalk parking lot, and a Clay-colored Sparrow was found near the beginning of the Estuary Trail west of the parking lot.  

At this point (late afternoon) winds are still from the southwest, but they are likely to shift around to north during the night.  A high percentage of the birds now present in the area are likely to stick around, but they may move away from the immediate lake shore.  So if you go to traditional shoreline sites and don't see as many birds as you'd expected, try some spots a mile or two to the south.  The area around Black Swamp Bird Observatory continues to be productive, and Pearson Park (west of Maumee Bay State Park on S.R. 2) has held a lot of migrants also.  

In short, Saturday and Sunday may not be big flight days, but enough birds have arrived in the area that birding should be quite good.  I will update again late tonight if I get a chance. 

More birds coming May 9-10

Tuesday, May 7: After a big arrival of birds last Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, things have slowed down.  As usually happens after such an influx, the numbers of migrants in the woodlots along the lake shore have gradually declined for the last four days.  Variety continues to be good, and a handful of notable birds, faithful to particular spots, have been crowd-pleasers.  For example, a very early Mourning Warbler showed up on May 1 at the west end of the Magee boardwalk and has been seen every day since.  One or two Worm-eating Warblers have been similarly cooperative.  But by today, overall numbers have become a little sparse.  

Weather conditions haven't been good for producing new flights since last Friday.  Persistently easterly winds haven't been especially favorable for bringing in new birds, and persistent bad weather to the south of us seems to have blocked a lot of migrants from coming north.  Typical May arrivals like Indigo Bunting and Eastern Wood-Pewee are still essentially absent, and migrants that will be abundant later in the month, like Red-eyed Vireo and American Redstart, have hardly begun to arrive.  Probably a lot of these birds are just a few hundred miles south of us, waiting for the weather to break and the wind to shift.  

The news is that such a weather change is about to happen.  After talking with Mark Shieldcastle, research director for BSBO, I'm confident that we'll see a lot of new birds between now and the weekend.  Even though no really large-scale weather patterns are set up to deliver birds to us, the migrants dammed up just to the south of us should show up as soon as conditions for them improve.

The timing still looks a little uncertain.  But it's likely that a few new migrants will show up Wednesday morning, May 8, as the weather improves to the south of us.  During the night Wednesday night, winds will be quite variable but they'll probably be from the south for at least part of the night, favoring the arrival of many more birds on Thursday.  During the day Thursday, according to current forecasts, winds will swing to the west and back to the south, with a good southerly flow Thursday night, so on Friday the 10th we should see a major arrival of birds.  It's likely to rain on Friday also, but in between showers the birding should be excellent.  We should see a major arrival of Magnolia, Chestnut-sided, and Bay-breasted Warblers, the first decent push of flycatchers, many more Swainson's and Gray-cheeked Thrushes, a few Yellow-billed and Black-billed Cuckoos, and so on.  

In the meantime, for birding on Wednesday, before the big arrival starts: if the Magee boardwalk is quiet, go check out sites a little farther away from the lake shore.  The woods behind the visitors' center at Ottawa NWR are always worth checking, as is the trail behind BSBO.  The auto tour route at Ottawa NWR (open every day through the 12th) has been consistent for Red-headed Woodpecker, and has a few pockets of shorebirds.  East Harbor State Park, just east of Port Clinton, is well worth exploring; many warblers were found there Tuesday.  Pearson Park, west of the turnoff to Maumee Bay State Park, has had good migrant numbers as well.  Or go farther west and explore some of the other units of the Toledo Metroparks, such as Swan Creek or Oak Openings.

Summary: Things should pick up just a little on Wednesday, May 8. We should see many more birds on Thursday, May 9, and even more on Friday, May 10.  Friday is likely to be rainy, but the birding should be very productive between showers, so bring your rain jacket or umbrella, and some waterproof protection for your optics and field guides, and come on out to join the fun!

April 30 - May 5: Lots of migrants coming!

Monday, April 29:  With rain yesterday and last night, songbird migration has been slowed down a bit, but some of the strong-flying shorebirds were on the move.  On April 28, a flock of 42 American Avocets was present for most of the day at Maumee Bay State Park, and a couple of Upland Sandpipers and some American Golden-Plovers showed up on Stange and Krause roads, just west of Ottawa NWR.  This morning, a Piping Plover was found on the beach at Camp Perry, west of Port Clinton.  Adverse weather conditions at this time in spring often result in interesting shorebird records like this.  

Weather conditions should be just about to turn from adverse to awesome.  Once again the forecast is for southerly winds, and this time I think they'll come through, with a fairly good flow of air from far to the south.  A lot of first-wave neotropical migrants should be staged a little to the south of us by now.  With the encouragement of winds, warmth, and mostly clear skies, large numbers of migrants should be moving during the next few nights.  Right now it looks as if the next three days - Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, April 30 through May 2 - all have very good potential, with daytime highs in the 70s and southerly winds.  The way the weather fronts are shaping up, there isn't any one of those three days that appears to have a clear advantage.  But the overall effect should be to pump a lot of birds into the area.  Diversity of warblers at places like Magee Marsh should jump from 5-to-10 species up to 15-to-20 species, and we should see a fine influx of thrushes, vireos, orioles, and all kinds of other wonderful spring migrants.  

By Friday, May 3, when The Biggest Week In American Birding kicks off, temperatures should be a little cooler again, with daytime highs in the 60s. Depending on the location of some approaching low-pressure areas on Thursday night, Friday may or may not be a really big day for migrants; but even if the Thursday night flight fizzles, we'll have plenty of migrants in the area by then.  And the diversity of migrants in the area through that first weekend should live up to this region's reputation.  

Summary: April 30 through May 2 should be the first really big days for diversity this season, and the variety and numbers should stay really good at least through May 5.  Beyond that point, I'll be studying the weather maps and hoping to pick out clearer patterns for the next prediction.  

April 25-30: Steady arrival of migrants expected

This male Hooded Warbler at Magee Marsh last weekend delighted observers by posing along the edge of the parking lot and the boardwalk. This is a regular "overflight" migrant, nesting mostly to the south of this region but showing up here in small numbers in early spring.

Wednesday, April 24:  With rain today and probably tomorrow, and cooler temperatures and westerly winds for the next two nights, migration may be slow temporarily, but not for long.  Starting Friday, April 26, temperatures should be getting warmer for the next several days, climbing into the 60s and to around 70 by Tuesday, April 30.  With winds predicted to be generally from the south, we should see many species arriving in northwestern Ohio.

Based on current weather forecasts, I expect the weekend of April 27-28 to bring good variety of species but not a huge number of individuals.  The southerly winds from Friday through Sunday don't look like they're associated with really large-scale weather systems.  By next Monday or Tuesday, April 29-30, with a  high-pressure area moving off to the east and a large low-pressure area approaching from the west, we should have a flow of air extending all the way up from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing a stronger flow of migrants.

At this point, the migrants present in the area are mainly those expected in mid to late April, dominated by Yellow-rumped Warblers, White-throated Sparrows, and Ruby-crowned Kinglets, but joined by less-common early species such as Orange-crowned Warbler and Pine Warbler.  "Overflight" migrants (those that mostly nest to the south of here, but which overfly their targets and show up here along Lake Erie) recently have included some cooperative and crowd-pleasing birds such as Hooded, Worm-eating, and Cerulean warblers and Louisiana Waterthrush.  Many other species have begun to show up as scattered singles, and new arrivals should be widespread throughout the region during the next few days. 

Brief summary: I expect the birding to be good every day from Friday on, with good variety over the weekend, and then even better variety and numbers next Monday and Tuesday, April 29 and 30.  We may not have any huge migration days during this period but they should all be good (and a good day along the Lake Erie shoreline is much better than a good day in most places!). Since we haven't had the exceptional heat of spring 2012, the trees haven't leafed out fully yet, so the birds are relatively easy to see (and to photograph), making for a very enjoyable time in the field.  We'll hope to see you out there!

Migration Outlook April 18-23

Pine Warbler is a classic April migrant at Magee Marsh and nearby areas in n.w. Ohio, and a few are in the area right now.  Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

Wednesday, April 17:  With a notable arrival of new birds during the last three days, the diversity of migrants in northwestern Ohio is growing rapidly.  Most warblers and other neotropical migrants are present in only small numbers, but the potential for surprising finds has ramped up considerably, and seekers are finding an exciting mix of birds.

Along with a push of Yellow-rumped Warblers and White-throated Sparrows on April 15-17, the area also received a good sprinkling of other birds, including Pine, Palm, Yellow, and Nashville warblers, Ovenbird, Louisiana Waterthrush, House Wren, Snowy Egret, Chimney Swift, and others.  A Prairie Warbler was enjoyed by many along the Magee Marsh boardwalk on April 16-17.

Tonight (Wednesday night) winds are from the east, but they are supposed to swing around to the south by sometime Thursday morning.  I doubt that will happen in time to produce many new migrants overnight, especially with rain happening to the south of us; but continuing southerly winds on Thursday might produce a daytime flight of hawks and other birds along the lake shore. With winds continuing southerly through Thursday night, Friday, and at least part of Friday night, we'll probably see a good arrival of new birds Friday morning, maybe Saturday morning as well.  But at the same time, we should watch for birds from the west.  A strong low-pressure system passing by to the north of us will create a major air flow from the west, so we might see strays such as American Avocet, Marbled Godwit, more American White Pelicans, or even Swainson's Hawk.  

Over the weekend we'll see winds shifting to the north on Saturday night (along with unseasonably cold temperatures) and then to the east-southeast on Sunday, shutting down much arrival of birds from the south or the west.  There will still be a lot of birds in the area, but they may be back away from the lake shore on Saturday and Sunday - so if the Magee boardwalk isn't active, you should check other spots a mile or two south, like the woods at Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge.  The auto tour at Ottawa is supposed to be open this weekend, Saturday and Sunday, from 8 to 4.  

On Monday, April 22, the winds will shift to more southerly again, especially overnight, and it's likely that we'll have a moderate arrival of migrants on Tuesday morning, the 23rd.  The number and variety of warblers and other neotropical migrants should continue to gradually increase, although I don't expect a massive arrival until a little later in the week.  

Summary:  Good numbers of early migrants are in the area, so every day should be rewarding for birding.  In the near term, the best days for new arrivals of migrants may be Friday, the 19th, and Tuesday, the 23rd, although the latter is still uncertain and the forecast may change.

Update: Migration outlook April 15-17

Brief update on Sunday afternoon, April 14: As predicted in the previous post (see that post for more details), numbers of birds dropped off somewhat this weekend, although the area still had a good diversity of migrants. Single Louisiana Waterthrushes, typical "overflight" species of early spring here, were found at Maumee Bay State Park on the 13th and at the boardwalk at Magee Marsh on the 14th.  

Current weather forecasts make it appear that Monday, April 15, will bring in a new wave of migrants, possibly with some first arrivals for the year in the morning and some movement of diurnal migrants during the day.  Birds will probably move again Monday night, so Tuesday, the 16th, might be even better.  Local concentrations of migrants on Tuesday morning will depend partly on the tracks and intensity of overnight storms.  Monday night is supposed to have good south winds and scattered thunderstorms, so it's possible that a lot of migrants might ride the winds into the general area and then get put down by storms.  There probably will be scattered rain during the day on Tuesday as well, but if you get out between storms, you might see a lot of birds.  If a thunderstorm hits your favorite local spot between midnight and dawn on Tuesday, it increases the chance that the spot will be hopping with migrants in the morning.  

By Tuesday night the wind is supposed to shift around to the northeast, so on Wednesday the 17th, migrants may be more generally distributed south of the lake shore, not so concentrated at shoreline sites.  

I'll try to update later with more of a look ahead, but for the moment I wanted to point out that both Monday and Tuesday appear to have good potential for migrants.

Migration outlook April 11-15

Wednesday, April 10:  Last Saturday night, conditions were ideal for migration, and Sunday morning produced a major influx of early migrants.  Golden-crowned Kinglets, Hermit Thrushes, Fox Sparrows, Yellow-rumped Warblers, Field Sparrows, and Yellow-bellied Sapsuckers all arrived in numbers, along with other typical birds of early April. The high numbers of birds have continued through the last three days, with even more birds apparently slipping in despite the unsettled weather.  By this morning, birding the Magee Marsh boardwalk, Greg Links found additional arrivals including 2 Pine Warblers, a Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, and major increases in Golden-crowned Kinglets (110), Ruby-crowned Kinglets (11), and Fox Sparrows (135!).  (The Lake Erie shoreline in n.w. Ohio is one of the best places in the world to see concentrations of Fox Sparrows in migration, and this is the peak of their passage here.) Other sites in the area, even several miles away from the lake shore, also held good numbers of migrants such as kinglets and several species of sparrows.  

With a lot of rain and northeasterly winds forecast for the next 36 hours, the birds are likely to be still around on Thursday and Friday, the 11th and 12th. The rain is supposed to move out by Friday morning, with winds switching around to the west or southwest. If the winds are southwesterly, we could see a decent hawk flight developing. The combination of held over migrants from today, plus daytime migrants moving, could make Friday a fine day to be out.  

On Saturday, April 13, they're forecasting a chance of snow flurries(!), with west winds and temperatures barely reaching the low 40s. But sometime Saturday night or Sunday, things will start to warm up, with a strong flow of air coming all the way up from the Gulf of Mexico, between a high-pressure area to the east and an approaching low-pressure area just to the west. The exact timing is a little uncertain, so it's hard to say whether we'll see a lot of new birds on Sunday or if Monday will be a much bigger day. At the moment, I'm afraid that Monday looks more likely, and it could be a really big day, with a lot of first-of-the-season arrivals.  Still, the whole weekend could be very good birding if you go out prepared for the weather!  

In regard to waterbirds: Shorebirds have started to show up in area wetlands, such as the Boss Unit of Ottawa NWR (Benton-Carroll Road just south of Route 2, just east of BSBO). Greater and Lesser Yellowlegs, Pectoral Sandpiper, and many Wilson's Snipes are in the area. On the 8th, Tiffanie Hayes photographed three American White Pelicans in flight over Fremont, just about 20 miles south of Magee Marsh, and these birds could still be somewhere in the general area. A single Black-necked Stilt has been seen a few times northeast of Fremont, mostly on private land, but it's worth watching for this species at any shallow wetland in the area. Forster's Terns and Caspian Terns are now back along Lake Erie, including at sites like Maumee Bay State Park. 

Summary: Lots of migrants are in the area now, and the birding should be very good from here on out. Based on current weather forecasts, Friday the 12th and Monday the 15th might be particularly good days.  

Magee Marsh Migrants April 7

Fox Sparrow: All along the Magee Marsh boardwalk in early April, before most of the songbird migrants arrive, they serve as a sort of "warm-up act" for the warbler show that happens later in the spring.

Sunday morning, April 7: As predicted earlier, local winds shifted to the south on Saturday and continued that way through the night, and this morning there was a major arrival of migrants in northwest Ohio.  At the Magee Marsh boardwalk, a pass through this morning revealed major turnover and a huge increase in numbers from the day before.  

Golden-crowned Kinglets and Fox Sparrows, which had been numerous already, were even more prevalent today, and the first few Ruby-crowned Kinglets showed up.  Hermit Thrushes arrived in force.  There was a big push of Yellow-bellied Sapsuckers (with more than a dozen along the boardwalk), and single Northern Flickers were passing overhead along the tree line all morning.  Major numbers of Dark-eyed Juncos were all along the road into Magee and around the edges of the woods, and a big arrival of Field Sparrows had them scattered throughout the area, including in such odd spots as deep inside the woods.  Other notable arrivals or increases involved Eastern Phoebe, Tree Swallow (probably tripled in numbers from the previous day), Brown Creeper, Winter Wren, Purple Finch, Eastern Towhee, and Chipping Sparrow.  I had not seen any warblers at the boardwalk before today, but this morning there were close to 20 Yellow-rumped Warblers there, the vanguard of the great warbler parade that will be coming in the next few weeks. 

Early this morning there was a serious movement of American Robins along the lake shore.  This had wound down by a couple of hours after sunrise, but a few Eastern Bluebirds continued to move through the area.  Flocks of blackbirds were moving through the area from east to west, and I estimated over 350 Rusty Blackbirds, which would be an exceptional total in most places.  An Osprey, a few Bald Eagles, and a couple of American Kestrels were the only migrating raptors that I had seen by the time I left the boardwalk area, but there could have been more by midday, although winds were beginning to shift more toward the west. 

Late this evening, winds are supposed to shift more toward the north, and be more or less northerly overnight, so many of the migrants that came in today will probably still be around tomorrow.  It's likely to rain tomorrow, but if you can get out between showers on Monday (or if you can get to any good migrant spot this afternoon), most of these birds probably will still be around.  We are still in the early stages of the migration, but the next 7 or 8 weeks will provide some of the most exciting birding of the year! 

More migrants coming April 4

Tuesday, April 2:  Conditions are looking good for an arrival of migrants this Thursday, April 4, and for more birds to show up over the weekend of April 6 and 7.

Currently there are good numbers of early migrants in the area.  Golden-crowned Kinglets, Brown Creepers,  Fox Sparrows, Winter Wrens, and others are increasing, and Rusty Blackbird numbers have been excellent in recent days.  Great Egrets and Tree Swallows have arrived in force, and the first Purple Martins are being reported.  So another arrival of migrants will pump up the birding opportunities that are already present.

To focus on the short-term prediction:  Local winds are supposed to be variable, but more or less northerly, through tonight and most of the day Wednesday.  On Wednesday evening, however, winds are supposed to shift to the south.  With clear skies and southerly winds overnight Wednesday night, we're likely to see an arrival of migrants Thursday morning, especially where birds are concentrated near the Lake Erie shoreline.  In addition to the species mentioned in the preceding paragraph, we should look for Hermit Thrush and Yellow-rumped Warbler in wooded areas, and American Pipit and Vesper and Savannah sparrows in open habitats.  

The forecast for the day on Thursday is for temperatures reaching the mid-50s and winds from the southwest, so there should be a good flight of daytime migrants, especially Turkey Vultures and hawks.  Vantage points near the lake shore, such as the hawk tower at Magee Marsh Wildlife Area or the sledding hill at Maumee Bay State Park, should be worthwhile, especially near the middle of the day. 

Winds will probably shift again from Thursday night to Saturday morning, but they're predicted to go back to southerly on Saturday, and stay southwesterly during Saturday night.  On Sunday, despite the chance of showers, there are likely to be more migrants around.  The weather pattern for Saturday night looks as if there will be a flow of air all the way from the Gulf Coast north to the Great Lakes, so there could be some migrants coming in from a considerable distance: perhaps some unusually early arrivals, perhaps some of the regular early spring "overflight" species such as Louisiana Waterthrush or Yellow-throated Warbler.

Of course, all of these weather forecasts are subject to change.  But based on current forecasts, I expect Thursday the 4th and Sunday the 7th to produce some notable movements.  Even if they don't, we're getting to the time of year when it's worthwhile to get out whenever possible. Hope to see you out there!

Weekend Forecast: March 29-31 should be very good

Thursday night, March 28:  Easter weekend is shaping up to be very good in northwestern Ohio.  Late this evening, the national radar picture showed a large movement of birds in southwestern Ohio, and we can expect many of those birds to arrive in northwestern Ohio over the next three days.  

Winds are variable at the moment and will shift around during the day and night Friday, with winds mostly coming from the north, but they should switch to southerly by sometime Saturday morning and should stay that way through much of Sunday.  On Saturday, with clear skies and warmer temperatures (low 50s) forecast, southerly winds could produce an excellent hawk flight near the Lake Erie shoreline.  Turkey Vultures are likely to be the main species, but there should also be numbers of Red-shouldered, Red-tailed, and Cooper's hawks, Bald Eagles, and a chance for scarcer species such as Merlin or even Golden Eagle.  

Among the smaller birds, some typical early season migrants such as Rusty Blackbird, Fox Sparrow, and Winter Wren should increase in numbers.  To a lesser extent, we should also see an influx of birds like Hermit Thrush, Eastern Towhee, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Purple Finch, and Golden-crowned Kinglet.  The timing of their arrival is hard to predict, but based on current weather forecasts, there could be a big arrival overnight Saturday night.  Sunday the 31st shows at least a 50 percent chance of rain, but in between showers, there could be a lot of birds to enjoy.  

Very large numbers of ducks are still in the area, both on inland marshes and on Lake Erie.  Some of these may begin to depart this weekend, but enough will still be around to add to the mix of what should be a very satisfying weekend.  

And, of course, this is a good time of year for rarities to start showing up.  Just to the east of our main area, at the Huron River mouth, Dave Clark found an Eared Grebe earlier this week, and it was apparently still present today.  In adjacent states, an amazing 40-plus Little Gulls have been at Presque Isle in northwestern Pennsylvania, and an equally amazing Spotted Redshank was found today at Goose Pond, Indiana.  Clearly, anything is possible!  If you find anything rare this weekend, please let the people at Black Swamp Bird Observatory know about it.  

Migration outlook May 14-20

May 14, midday:  Birders who have visited NW Ohio for the first time this spring have raved about the fine birding here.  They might be surprised to learn that the numbers actually have been below average; the typical year is better than this!  Weather conditions have not set up to deliver a really massive flight of birds yet.  Of course, the Magee region is not dependent on "fallout" conditions; good numbers and variety of migrants will concentrate along the lake shore all spring, regardless of the weather.  But a season like this one makes it hard to predict the best days. 

The last few days have produced fair numbers and excellent variety of migrants, highlighted by at least three Kirtland's Warblers, two of which were seen by large numbers of birders.  With light northerly winds now and no major weather systems nearby, I expect numbers to drop off a little during the next couple of days.  But by Thursday, the 17th, we'll start to see development of a good flow of air out of the south, and I expect to see a big influx of migrants toward the end of the week.  Friday and Saturday, the 18th and 19th, might be moderately big days. 

The species composition of migrants over the weekend suggested that there are still many migrants yet to arrive.  Whether or not they have any days of huge concentrations, there are still major numbers of second-wave migrants that have to come through (or over) the region.  So birding should continue to produce a lot of variety for the next couple of weeks, even on days when the sheer numbers are not stellar. 

I haven't heard of any Connecticut Warblers yet at the Magee boardwalk, but BSBO's main research site a few miles farther east had a couple today, so they should be found at the boardwalk soon.  With a push of migrants coming in, I would be surprised if Connecticuts were not found next weekend at Magee.  Their peak passage is during the third and fourth weeks of May.  Other late-season migrants that haven't shown up in numbers yet include Mourning and Canada warblers, Red-eyed Vireos, Gray-cheeked Thrushes, and Yellow-bellied and Alder flycatchers.  So the parade is far from over. 

Summary:  At this time of year, if you can go birding every day, do it!  But if you have to pick and choose, next Friday and Saturday (May 18-19) might produce more birds than Tuesday or Wednesday (May 15-16). Thursday is a toss-up at this point, but I'll try to post more after I study the weather maps some more.

Migration Outlook May 11 - 13

Thursday, May 10:  This week has been characterized by high diversity and fairly good numbers of birds.  Weather conditions have not been right for massive arrivals of migrants, but decent numbers have been coming in anyway.  By now, 36 of the 37 likely species of warblers have been recorded in the area; at least one and probably two Kirtland's Warblers were near the east end of the Magee Marsh boardwalk on Wednesday, May 9.  Only Connecticut Warbler (typically a late May migrant) has not yet been found this season, to my knowledge. 

As of today, the mix of species is still shifting over from first-wave to second-wave migrants.  Yellow-rumped Warblers are still very common, and second-wave birds like Magnolia Warblers are nowhere near peak numbers yet.  I expect this to change over the next couple of days.  Tonight (Thursday night) the winds are almost calm, the sky is clear, and the radar indicates that many birds are migrating.  I think that on Friday morning we'll see noticeable turnover, possibly with fewer birds around than today.  However, Friday night the winds should be southerly to southwesterly all night, and even though they won't be associated with a major frontal system, I think that a lot of migrants will come in overnight.  Saturday morning, May 12, there should be diurnal migrants flying along the lake shore (flocks of Blue Jays, goldfinches, and others).  Early in the morning, many nocturnal migrants such as warblers should be moving along the lake shore as well, shifting location as they seek the best habitat in which to spend the day.  By midday Saturday there may be a small flight of hawks, although most of the migrant hawks have gone through already.

Saturday's birding should produce an excellent mix of migrant songbirds, with species such as Magnolia, Bay-breasted, Chestnut-sided, Blackburnian, and Cape May warblers becoming common, and the first real push of Blackpoll Warblers and American Redstarts.  All five of the expected brown thrushes should be around, plus most of the vireos, more flycatchers than earlier in the month, Lincoln's Sparrows, and others. Late on Saturday the wind is probably going to shift around toward the northwest, so many of Saturday's birds are likely to be present still on Sunday, although perhaps less concentrated near the lake shore.

Birders in the area the last couple of days have noticed many large swarms of tiny insects over the marshes and woods near the lake.  Over the Magee boardwalk, their swarms in some places were large enough to create a loud whining hum.  These insects are midges (family Chironomidae).  They are completely harmless, unable to bite or sting, and they are very important as a food source for migrant songbirds.  They represent another reason why the wooded areas among the western Lake Erie marshes are so valuable as stopover habitat for migrants!  If you happen to see and / or hear these swarms of midges, don't be alarmed; just be glad that the migrating birds will be able to fuel up for their next flight. 

Update May 2, Outlook May 3-6

Things are looking up: this Prairie Warbler was enjoyed by scores of birders today (dozens of whom undoubtedly got better photos than this) at Magee Marsh. Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

May 2:  Today the Magee Marsh area had only fair numbers of migrants, but very good diversity.  I was out at dawn at Magee and numbers were very low at first, as often happens, but things picked up considerably by 8:00.  Numbers of Yellow-rumped Warblers were down from yesterday, numbers of Yellow Warblers and White-crowned Sparrows were way up, and there were good numbers of Tennessee, Nashville, and Black-throated Green warblers, the first serious arrival of Magnolia Warblers, plus others including Blackburnian, Cape May, and Blue-winged. Orioles were conspicuously common, many Eastern Kingbirds and hundreds of Blue Jays were on the move, and a few Bobolinks came over along the lake shore. A very cooperative Prairie Warbler was enjoyed by dozens of birders for an extended period near the east end of the boardwalk.  Between Magee Marsh and the BSBO main banding station 4 miles farther east, I heard of at least 23 warbler species being found today.

Other areas near Lake Erie also hosted many birds.  Early this morning, Forrest Rowland had good numbers and variety of migrants around the edge of the Lodge and Nature Center parking lot at Maumee Bay State Park, and Michael Godfrey reported similarly good results in the woods at East Harbor State Park, just east of Port Clinton.  So it appears that the migrants were more concentrated near the lakeshore today than they had been the day before, but White-crowned Sparrows and others were widespread inland as well. 

It still appears that Thursday morning, May 3, also will be very good in n.w. Ohio. After discussing the birds and weather with Mark Shieldcastle, it looks to me as if Thursday could go either of two ways.  We could have another day of good diversity but only moderate numbers: the southerly winds forecast for the overnight hours are not connected to major weather systems, so they may just bring in a generous sprinkling of birds.  Or the flight could surprise us, with the southerly winds bringing many birds along and possibly running into a shower or two near dawn, so that we see good diversity AND very large numbers.

According to current forecasts, southerly winds should continue through Thursday night, bringing more turnover and more arrivals Friday, before a wind shift slows things down on Saturday.  By that time, we should have enough birds in every patch of habitat locally to keep things interesting for the next week!

Summary: Thursday and Friday, May 3 and 4, should bring good variety, and numbers ranging from fair to excellent. Saturday May 5 might bring more arrivals, but is more likely to keep Friday's birds in place.

Monday update: beyond expectations

Update, Monday April 30: Last night I predicted that we wouldn't see many new migrants locally until Wednesday, based on detailed weather forecasts.  But this morning, there is a substantial arrival of new migrants. Ethan Kistler reports that there are at least 9 warbler species around BSBO (still mostly Yellow-rumps, but with a scatter of others including Blue-winged, Pine, and Northern Waterthrush).  Baltimore and Orchard orioles and Rose-breasted Grosbeak are around in numbers, and all three of those mid-sized songbirds are also present at the Magee boardwalk and elsewhere in the area.

What's the story? Winds at ground level were not favorable for migration last night, at least not in the local area, but the radar picture showed that some birds were definitely moving in areas to the south of us. Mid-sized songbirds like orioles, already present in good numbers just a little farther south, may have pushed on through without the help of favorable winds - or winds aloft may have been different from those at ground level.  Rain showers came through here from the west very early in the morning, and they may have knocked down some migrating birds locally also. 

Whatever the reasons, the birding today is better than anyone here had expected.  I still think that Wednesday and Thursday this week will bring bigger flights (see the post below this one), but if you have the chance to get out before then, there's no reason to wait for the "big" day.  The weather and the birds both have endless capacity to surprise us and to foil our predictions!

Migration Outlook April 30 - May 4: Prepare to call in sick

Northern Parula at Magee Marsh.  One of the many species likely to be seen the latter part of this week.  Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

April 29, 2012: Things have been slow for the last several days, with unfavorable winds, cooler temperatures, and some rain all acting against the arrival of migrants. Some birds have been moving anyway, despite the conditions; for example, down in central Ohio, a “fallout” of migrating Willets was noted yesterday, and scattered individuals of many migrant species have shown up near the lake shore. But things are about to change in a big way, with a major arrival of migrants expected this week.


The exact timing of things is still looking a bit tricky. I don’t expect many new birds on Monday, April 30, because winds will be northeasterly during the first part of Sunday night and easterly (with rain) later. During the day Monday, winds are supposed to shift to southeasterly and then southerly, and stay that way all day and into the evening. Then late in the evening Monday, winds are supposed to swing back around to the west and then the northwest. We’ll probably see some more diurnal migrants during the day (swallows, goldfinches, jays, shorebirds, maybe a few hawks), and some migrants may come in during the night Monday night, since there are many migrants just a short distance south of here in central Ohio. But Monday’s southerly winds are not a part of a major weather system, so I don’t expect Tuesday’s arrival to be huge.

However – Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, May 2, 3, and 4, look like they have great potential. Winds will shift back to the southeasterly or southerly sometime on Tuesday, and this time they’ll be associated with an air flow coming all the way up from the Gulf of Mexico, so it looks like a good setup to bring in a major flight. I can’t tell whether the bigger day will be Wednesday or Thursday, but considering how many birds must be dammed up to the south of us, Wednesday would be a good bet. Both days should be good, with Friday at least fairly good also. There should be many, many migrant songbirds in the woods close to the lake, and probably a good hawk flight developing by midday Wednesday.

I talked to Mark Shieldcastle, BSBO’s Research Director, and he said that at this point it’s hard to say whether this next big flight will be more like the end of the “first wave” or the beginning of the “second wave.” In other words, we could see a flood of Yellow-rumped and Palm warblers and White-throated Sparrows, with a generous scattering of singles of other species, or we could see an overall increase in variety, with numbers of many species. Or it could morph from the first wave to the second between Wednesday and Friday. Either way, if you can get out to the lake shore migrant traps during the latter part of the week, I’d recommend it. You might want to call in sick at work or school on Wednesday – serious case of the bird flu! And if you can’t get out until the weekend, that should be good too, with loads of recently-arrived birds in the woodlots.

For more information on the timing of major “waves” of migrants, as worked out by Mark Shieldcastle from BSBO research, see this link:

Migration outlook April 25-29

April 25: After several days of strong northerly or westerly winds, the wind is now lighter and coming from the south.  This region of Ohio has not seen a big arrival of migrants since last Friday, but this wind shift should allow some new birds to come in.  At the moment, the forecast is for the winds to continue more or less southerly through Wednesday night, so I expect a moderate number of new arrivals to be in the area on Thursday morning, April 26.  After that the wind is expected to go northerly again, at least through the weekend.  After tonight, on the basis of current weather forecasts, I don't expect any major waves of migrants to arrive until sometime next week. 

One thing to consider: the more the migration is held back, the bigger the flight when the wind finally shifts.  On the basis of current weather forecasts, next Wednesday, May 2, MIGHT produce a very big arrival here.  But of course the weather forecast could change many times in the next week!  I will keep an eye on the changing conditions and will post updated predictions in a few days.

Advice for those coming to bird the Magee / Ottawa region -- always consider wind direction when choosing where to look.  Most people have a tendency to go to the Magee boardwalk first.  But when the wind is strong out of the north, as it has been on some days recently, migrant birds may shift to more sheltered woodlots back away from the Lake Erie shoreline.  Larger patches of woods such as those at East Harbor State Park, behind the visitors' center at Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge, or farther west at Pearson Park (on Rt. 2 in Oregon, just east of Toledo) may hold more migrants when the lakeshore spots are blasted by north winds. 

Summary: Right now I expect more migrants to arrive Thursday morning, April 26 -- probably not a huge flight, but with enough variety to keep us going through the weekend.  Look for the next really major flight to arrive sometime around May 1, 2, or 3. 

Migration outlook April 18-22

Almost record-early for northwest Ohio, this male Scarlet Tanager entertained many birders at the Magee Marsh Wildlife Area boardwalk on April 16 and 17. Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

April 17: This past weekend developed about as predicted, with a moderate arrival of migrants on Saturday morning, bigger numbers Sunday morning, and an excellent hawk flight on Sunday afternoon.  Fierce west winds on Monday were discouraging to birders, at least, but some new migrants were found; late in the day, Ethan Kistler and John Sawvel found several surprising birds along the Magee boardwalk, including White-eyed Vireo, Louisiana Waterthrush, and a near-record-early Scarlet Tanager. 


At this stage the migrants seem to be mostly on a normal schedule, with large numbers of Yellow-rumped Warblers, White-throated Sparrows, Hermit Thrushes, and others present, and fair numbers of other early migrants such as Blue-gray Gnatcatchers and Rusty Blackbirds.  A few species seem to have moved through / moved out early (for example, Golden-crowned Kinglets already seem to be all but gone) and a few individual birds are showing up surprisingly early.  The BSBO main banding station, a few miles east of the Magee boardwalk, had a Blackburnian Warbler on April 16 (record-early for n.w. Ohio by one day), and over the weekend single Hooded Warblers were found both there and at Magee.  In other words, there are plenty of potential surprises for birders who are willing to get out and prowl the trails.


Looking ahead: Tonight (Tuesday night), breezes are light and variable and partly from the north, and I don't expect much turnover before Wednesday.  From Wednesday morning through Friday afternoon, the prediction is for the winds to be more or less southerly, with this flow becoming stronger and more associated with larger weather systems toward Thursday night.  Sometime late Friday, according to current forecasts, the wind will swing around to the north, ushering in much cooler temperatures for the weekend. 


Birding prediction:  In the migrant traps near Lake Erie, I don't expect many new migrants on Wednesday April 18, but new arrivals should come in on the mornings of Thursday and Friday, April 19 and 20.  There could be a fair hawk flight on Thursday or Friday, or both, with warm afternoons and southwest winds.  The migation will shut down Friday night, so there won't be many new birds on Saturday and Sunday, April 21 and 22, but most of the birds present late in the week should stick around.  The weekend's high temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s and low 50s, but there shouldn't be much rain, and it would be a good time to get out and enjoy the early-season migrants.