Next pushes of migrants expected: Wednesday and next weekend

Tuesday, May 14:  As predicted, today turned out to be a good day for migrants in n.w. Ohio.  The star of the day, without a doubt, was the Kirtland's Warbler found on the East Beach (Wildlife Beach) at Magee Marsh Wildlife Area, seen by many people through most of the day.  Diversity of warblers continued to be good elsewhere in the area as well, along with improved numbers of thrushes, vireos, and others.  

At this point (late evening on Tuesday), all indications are that there's a major movement of birds going on.  The radar picture shows huge numbers migrating over southwestern Ohio, and many of these birds will reach the Lake Erie shoreline by dawn, aided by fairly strong southerly winds.  So Wednesday, May 15, should be an excellent day in any migrant traps in northwestern Ohio.  We'll probably see a lot of turnover, with many birds departing as well as birds arriving, so total numbers may not be strikingly higher, but the mix of birds present should be clearly different from today's.  

After Wednesday morning, the forecast is for the winds to be much more variable for a couple of days, and I don't expect a lot of arriving migrants on Thursday or Friday.  But things could improve on Saturday, May 18, and especially on Sunday and Monday, May 19 & 20, with major weather systems bringing in a strong flow of air from far to the south.  

By Sunday, the composition of the migrant flocks near the lake shore should be noticeably different from what we've seen the last few days.  Numbers of Yellow-rumped, Palm, Nashville, and Black-and-white Warblers should drop. At the same time, we should see a pickup in numbers of Magnolia, Blackpoll, Canada, and Wilson's Warblers, plus Swainson's and Gray-cheeked Thrushes, Red-eyed and Philadelphia Vireos, and several of the flycatchers.  By this weekend we'll also have a reasonable chance of finding Connecticut Warbler, a late-May specialty, although the following weekend is closer to its peak dates.  So there are still plenty of reasons to go birding!

More birds coming May 9-10

Tuesday, May 7: After a big arrival of birds last Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, things have slowed down.  As usually happens after such an influx, the numbers of migrants in the woodlots along the lake shore have gradually declined for the last four days.  Variety continues to be good, and a handful of notable birds, faithful to particular spots, have been crowd-pleasers.  For example, a very early Mourning Warbler showed up on May 1 at the west end of the Magee boardwalk and has been seen every day since.  One or two Worm-eating Warblers have been similarly cooperative.  But by today, overall numbers have become a little sparse.  

Weather conditions haven't been good for producing new flights since last Friday.  Persistently easterly winds haven't been especially favorable for bringing in new birds, and persistent bad weather to the south of us seems to have blocked a lot of migrants from coming north.  Typical May arrivals like Indigo Bunting and Eastern Wood-Pewee are still essentially absent, and migrants that will be abundant later in the month, like Red-eyed Vireo and American Redstart, have hardly begun to arrive.  Probably a lot of these birds are just a few hundred miles south of us, waiting for the weather to break and the wind to shift.  

The news is that such a weather change is about to happen.  After talking with Mark Shieldcastle, research director for BSBO, I'm confident that we'll see a lot of new birds between now and the weekend.  Even though no really large-scale weather patterns are set up to deliver birds to us, the migrants dammed up just to the south of us should show up as soon as conditions for them improve.

The timing still looks a little uncertain.  But it's likely that a few new migrants will show up Wednesday morning, May 8, as the weather improves to the south of us.  During the night Wednesday night, winds will be quite variable but they'll probably be from the south for at least part of the night, favoring the arrival of many more birds on Thursday.  During the day Thursday, according to current forecasts, winds will swing to the west and back to the south, with a good southerly flow Thursday night, so on Friday the 10th we should see a major arrival of birds.  It's likely to rain on Friday also, but in between showers the birding should be excellent.  We should see a major arrival of Magnolia, Chestnut-sided, and Bay-breasted Warblers, the first decent push of flycatchers, many more Swainson's and Gray-cheeked Thrushes, a few Yellow-billed and Black-billed Cuckoos, and so on.  

In the meantime, for birding on Wednesday, before the big arrival starts: if the Magee boardwalk is quiet, go check out sites a little farther away from the lake shore.  The woods behind the visitors' center at Ottawa NWR are always worth checking, as is the trail behind BSBO.  The auto tour route at Ottawa NWR (open every day through the 12th) has been consistent for Red-headed Woodpecker, and has a few pockets of shorebirds.  East Harbor State Park, just east of Port Clinton, is well worth exploring; many warblers were found there Tuesday.  Pearson Park, west of the turnoff to Maumee Bay State Park, has had good migrant numbers as well.  Or go farther west and explore some of the other units of the Toledo Metroparks, such as Swan Creek or Oak Openings.

Summary: Things should pick up just a little on Wednesday, May 8. We should see many more birds on Thursday, May 9, and even more on Friday, May 10.  Friday is likely to be rainy, but the birding should be very productive between showers, so bring your rain jacket or umbrella, and some waterproof protection for your optics and field guides, and come on out to join the fun!

Migration Outlook April 18-23

Pine Warbler is a classic April migrant at Magee Marsh and nearby areas in n.w. Ohio, and a few are in the area right now.  Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

Wednesday, April 17:  With a notable arrival of new birds during the last three days, the diversity of migrants in northwestern Ohio is growing rapidly.  Most warblers and other neotropical migrants are present in only small numbers, but the potential for surprising finds has ramped up considerably, and seekers are finding an exciting mix of birds.

Along with a push of Yellow-rumped Warblers and White-throated Sparrows on April 15-17, the area also received a good sprinkling of other birds, including Pine, Palm, Yellow, and Nashville warblers, Ovenbird, Louisiana Waterthrush, House Wren, Snowy Egret, Chimney Swift, and others.  A Prairie Warbler was enjoyed by many along the Magee Marsh boardwalk on April 16-17.

Tonight (Wednesday night) winds are from the east, but they are supposed to swing around to the south by sometime Thursday morning.  I doubt that will happen in time to produce many new migrants overnight, especially with rain happening to the south of us; but continuing southerly winds on Thursday might produce a daytime flight of hawks and other birds along the lake shore. With winds continuing southerly through Thursday night, Friday, and at least part of Friday night, we'll probably see a good arrival of new birds Friday morning, maybe Saturday morning as well.  But at the same time, we should watch for birds from the west.  A strong low-pressure system passing by to the north of us will create a major air flow from the west, so we might see strays such as American Avocet, Marbled Godwit, more American White Pelicans, or even Swainson's Hawk.  

Over the weekend we'll see winds shifting to the north on Saturday night (along with unseasonably cold temperatures) and then to the east-southeast on Sunday, shutting down much arrival of birds from the south or the west.  There will still be a lot of birds in the area, but they may be back away from the lake shore on Saturday and Sunday - so if the Magee boardwalk isn't active, you should check other spots a mile or two south, like the woods at Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge.  The auto tour at Ottawa is supposed to be open this weekend, Saturday and Sunday, from 8 to 4.  

On Monday, April 22, the winds will shift to more southerly again, especially overnight, and it's likely that we'll have a moderate arrival of migrants on Tuesday morning, the 23rd.  The number and variety of warblers and other neotropical migrants should continue to gradually increase, although I don't expect a massive arrival until a little later in the week.  

Summary:  Good numbers of early migrants are in the area, so every day should be rewarding for birding.  In the near term, the best days for new arrivals of migrants may be Friday, the 19th, and Tuesday, the 23rd, although the latter is still uncertain and the forecast may change.

Migration outlook April 11-15

Wednesday, April 10:  Last Saturday night, conditions were ideal for migration, and Sunday morning produced a major influx of early migrants.  Golden-crowned Kinglets, Hermit Thrushes, Fox Sparrows, Yellow-rumped Warblers, Field Sparrows, and Yellow-bellied Sapsuckers all arrived in numbers, along with other typical birds of early April. The high numbers of birds have continued through the last three days, with even more birds apparently slipping in despite the unsettled weather.  By this morning, birding the Magee Marsh boardwalk, Greg Links found additional arrivals including 2 Pine Warblers, a Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, and major increases in Golden-crowned Kinglets (110), Ruby-crowned Kinglets (11), and Fox Sparrows (135!).  (The Lake Erie shoreline in n.w. Ohio is one of the best places in the world to see concentrations of Fox Sparrows in migration, and this is the peak of their passage here.) Other sites in the area, even several miles away from the lake shore, also held good numbers of migrants such as kinglets and several species of sparrows.  

With a lot of rain and northeasterly winds forecast for the next 36 hours, the birds are likely to be still around on Thursday and Friday, the 11th and 12th. The rain is supposed to move out by Friday morning, with winds switching around to the west or southwest. If the winds are southwesterly, we could see a decent hawk flight developing. The combination of held over migrants from today, plus daytime migrants moving, could make Friday a fine day to be out.  

On Saturday, April 13, they're forecasting a chance of snow flurries(!), with west winds and temperatures barely reaching the low 40s. But sometime Saturday night or Sunday, things will start to warm up, with a strong flow of air coming all the way up from the Gulf of Mexico, between a high-pressure area to the east and an approaching low-pressure area just to the west. The exact timing is a little uncertain, so it's hard to say whether we'll see a lot of new birds on Sunday or if Monday will be a much bigger day. At the moment, I'm afraid that Monday looks more likely, and it could be a really big day, with a lot of first-of-the-season arrivals.  Still, the whole weekend could be very good birding if you go out prepared for the weather!  

In regard to waterbirds: Shorebirds have started to show up in area wetlands, such as the Boss Unit of Ottawa NWR (Benton-Carroll Road just south of Route 2, just east of BSBO). Greater and Lesser Yellowlegs, Pectoral Sandpiper, and many Wilson's Snipes are in the area. On the 8th, Tiffanie Hayes photographed three American White Pelicans in flight over Fremont, just about 20 miles south of Magee Marsh, and these birds could still be somewhere in the general area. A single Black-necked Stilt has been seen a few times northeast of Fremont, mostly on private land, but it's worth watching for this species at any shallow wetland in the area. Forster's Terns and Caspian Terns are now back along Lake Erie, including at sites like Maumee Bay State Park. 

Summary: Lots of migrants are in the area now, and the birding should be very good from here on out. Based on current weather forecasts, Friday the 12th and Monday the 15th might be particularly good days.  

Magee Marsh Migrants April 7

Fox Sparrow: All along the Magee Marsh boardwalk in early April, before most of the songbird migrants arrive, they serve as a sort of "warm-up act" for the warbler show that happens later in the spring.

Sunday morning, April 7: As predicted earlier, local winds shifted to the south on Saturday and continued that way through the night, and this morning there was a major arrival of migrants in northwest Ohio.  At the Magee Marsh boardwalk, a pass through this morning revealed major turnover and a huge increase in numbers from the day before.  

Golden-crowned Kinglets and Fox Sparrows, which had been numerous already, were even more prevalent today, and the first few Ruby-crowned Kinglets showed up.  Hermit Thrushes arrived in force.  There was a big push of Yellow-bellied Sapsuckers (with more than a dozen along the boardwalk), and single Northern Flickers were passing overhead along the tree line all morning.  Major numbers of Dark-eyed Juncos were all along the road into Magee and around the edges of the woods, and a big arrival of Field Sparrows had them scattered throughout the area, including in such odd spots as deep inside the woods.  Other notable arrivals or increases involved Eastern Phoebe, Tree Swallow (probably tripled in numbers from the previous day), Brown Creeper, Winter Wren, Purple Finch, Eastern Towhee, and Chipping Sparrow.  I had not seen any warblers at the boardwalk before today, but this morning there were close to 20 Yellow-rumped Warblers there, the vanguard of the great warbler parade that will be coming in the next few weeks. 

Early this morning there was a serious movement of American Robins along the lake shore.  This had wound down by a couple of hours after sunrise, but a few Eastern Bluebirds continued to move through the area.  Flocks of blackbirds were moving through the area from east to west, and I estimated over 350 Rusty Blackbirds, which would be an exceptional total in most places.  An Osprey, a few Bald Eagles, and a couple of American Kestrels were the only migrating raptors that I had seen by the time I left the boardwalk area, but there could have been more by midday, although winds were beginning to shift more toward the west. 

Late this evening, winds are supposed to shift more toward the north, and be more or less northerly overnight, so many of the migrants that came in today will probably still be around tomorrow.  It's likely to rain tomorrow, but if you can get out between showers on Monday (or if you can get to any good migrant spot this afternoon), most of these birds probably will still be around.  We are still in the early stages of the migration, but the next 7 or 8 weeks will provide some of the most exciting birding of the year! 

More migrants coming April 4

Tuesday, April 2:  Conditions are looking good for an arrival of migrants this Thursday, April 4, and for more birds to show up over the weekend of April 6 and 7.

Currently there are good numbers of early migrants in the area.  Golden-crowned Kinglets, Brown Creepers,  Fox Sparrows, Winter Wrens, and others are increasing, and Rusty Blackbird numbers have been excellent in recent days.  Great Egrets and Tree Swallows have arrived in force, and the first Purple Martins are being reported.  So another arrival of migrants will pump up the birding opportunities that are already present.

To focus on the short-term prediction:  Local winds are supposed to be variable, but more or less northerly, through tonight and most of the day Wednesday.  On Wednesday evening, however, winds are supposed to shift to the south.  With clear skies and southerly winds overnight Wednesday night, we're likely to see an arrival of migrants Thursday morning, especially where birds are concentrated near the Lake Erie shoreline.  In addition to the species mentioned in the preceding paragraph, we should look for Hermit Thrush and Yellow-rumped Warbler in wooded areas, and American Pipit and Vesper and Savannah sparrows in open habitats.  

The forecast for the day on Thursday is for temperatures reaching the mid-50s and winds from the southwest, so there should be a good flight of daytime migrants, especially Turkey Vultures and hawks.  Vantage points near the lake shore, such as the hawk tower at Magee Marsh Wildlife Area or the sledding hill at Maumee Bay State Park, should be worthwhile, especially near the middle of the day. 

Winds will probably shift again from Thursday night to Saturday morning, but they're predicted to go back to southerly on Saturday, and stay southwesterly during Saturday night.  On Sunday, despite the chance of showers, there are likely to be more migrants around.  The weather pattern for Saturday night looks as if there will be a flow of air all the way from the Gulf Coast north to the Great Lakes, so there could be some migrants coming in from a considerable distance: perhaps some unusually early arrivals, perhaps some of the regular early spring "overflight" species such as Louisiana Waterthrush or Yellow-throated Warbler.

Of course, all of these weather forecasts are subject to change.  But based on current forecasts, I expect Thursday the 4th and Sunday the 7th to produce some notable movements.  Even if they don't, we're getting to the time of year when it's worthwhile to get out whenever possible. Hope to see you out there!

Weekend Forecast: March 29-31 should be very good

Thursday night, March 28:  Easter weekend is shaping up to be very good in northwestern Ohio.  Late this evening, the national radar picture showed a large movement of birds in southwestern Ohio, and we can expect many of those birds to arrive in northwestern Ohio over the next three days.  

Winds are variable at the moment and will shift around during the day and night Friday, with winds mostly coming from the north, but they should switch to southerly by sometime Saturday morning and should stay that way through much of Sunday.  On Saturday, with clear skies and warmer temperatures (low 50s) forecast, southerly winds could produce an excellent hawk flight near the Lake Erie shoreline.  Turkey Vultures are likely to be the main species, but there should also be numbers of Red-shouldered, Red-tailed, and Cooper's hawks, Bald Eagles, and a chance for scarcer species such as Merlin or even Golden Eagle.  

Among the smaller birds, some typical early season migrants such as Rusty Blackbird, Fox Sparrow, and Winter Wren should increase in numbers.  To a lesser extent, we should also see an influx of birds like Hermit Thrush, Eastern Towhee, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Purple Finch, and Golden-crowned Kinglet.  The timing of their arrival is hard to predict, but based on current weather forecasts, there could be a big arrival overnight Saturday night.  Sunday the 31st shows at least a 50 percent chance of rain, but in between showers, there could be a lot of birds to enjoy.  

Very large numbers of ducks are still in the area, both on inland marshes and on Lake Erie.  Some of these may begin to depart this weekend, but enough will still be around to add to the mix of what should be a very satisfying weekend.  

And, of course, this is a good time of year for rarities to start showing up.  Just to the east of our main area, at the Huron River mouth, Dave Clark found an Eared Grebe earlier this week, and it was apparently still present today.  In adjacent states, an amazing 40-plus Little Gulls have been at Presque Isle in northwestern Pennsylvania, and an equally amazing Spotted Redshank was found today at Goose Pond, Indiana.  Clearly, anything is possible!  If you find anything rare this weekend, please let the people at Black Swamp Bird Observatory know about it.  

Early Spring Migrants

The boardwalk at Magee Marsh Wildlife Area on March 22, 2013: Waiting for spring.

March 22, 2013: At this time last year, northwest Ohio was experiencing temperatures in the 80s. This year's weather has been more "normal," or even a bit colder than normal, with recent temperatures mostly below freezing.  The forecast calls for cool weather for the next week, with highs in the 30s and 40s, but the movement of early spring migrants is well under way and the birding is great.

Waterfowl are the stars of the show now, with nearly 30 species of ducks, geese, and swans currently present in n.w. Ohio.  As of today, some inland areas such as Metzger Marsh and the causeway through Magee Marsh were partly frozen, but large numbers of ducks were concentrated in the open areas.  Wood Ducks have returned in large numbers, many Redheads and Northern Pintails are passing through, and Blue-winged Teal have begun to show up.  The pond at the boardwalk at Magee Marsh has been hosting surprising numbers of ducks, especially in the evenings, and Bob Foppe found a male Eurasian Wigeon there on March 21 (it wasn't seen there on the 22nd, but it's likely to be still somewhere in the area).  The Boss Unit of Ottawa N.W.R. (parking lot on Benton-Carroll Road south of State Route 2) has some standing water and a lot of dabbling ducks, although a scope is very helpful for seeing them.  Scoping from the new observation platform today, I made a careful count of 108 Wood Ducks back along the edge of the woodlot.

The nearshore waters of Lake Erie are also full of ducks now, with particularly large flocks of Common Mergansers and Lesser Scaup (and very small numbers of Greater Scaup mixed in).  Horned Grebes are also moving through, although in smaller numbers.  Viewpoints on the lake such as Maumee Bay State Park, the end of the road at Metzger Marsh and Magee Marsh, East Harbor State Park, and Marblehead Lighthouse State Park are all worth checking.  The open waters of Sandusky Bay are also hosting huge numbers of scaup and other birds. 

Other migrants are also showing up.  American Woodcocks have returned, and can be heard doing their flight songs at night in any location with open fields and swampy woods, such as Magee Marsh and Maumee Bay.  Wilson's Snipes have arrived, and Pectoral Sandpipers should show up soon.  Eastern Towhee and Eastern Phoebe were both found along the Magee Marsh boardwalk this week.  Numbers of migrant Rusty Blackbirds are increasing, and this is a good time to study this declining species.  

Aside from a good movement on March 9-10, raptor migration has not been impressive so far.  To create a good movement along the Lake Erie shoreline, we need moderate winds from the southwest.  Predictions change from day to day, of course; but at the moment the long-range forecast shows southwest winds happening next on Saturday, March 30.  If it works out that way, that could be a fine flight day for hawks and other birds.  But if your schedule is flexible, keep an eye on the weather and be ready to head to the lake shore if the wind goes to the southwest before then!

Mark Shieldcastle's prediction for Memorial Day weekend, May 25-28

May 24, afternoon:  This is a direct quote from Mark Shieldcastle, research director for Black Swamp Bird Observatory.


"Birding by ear may be the trend for this weekend with vegetation in full summer finery. Weather patterns appear favorable for movement the next few days and the timing for the Third Wave is upon us. BSBO's Navarre banding station has been witnessing the slow shift to the final wave the past couple of days. Magnolia Warbler has gone from males to females with the past couple of days of southerly wind. 15 - 25 species of warbler are still being recorded daily. Red-eyed Vireos, Gray-cheeked Thrush, American Redstart, Canada, Wilson, and Mourning Warblers have all increased. With predicted weather, the Empid flycatchers should come in force this weekend signaling the final major push of migrants. Now is the time for cuckoos, Cedar Waxwings, and if you are still haunted by the Connecticut Warbler then make some time to check out your favorite local habitat or make another sojourn to the Lake Erie marshes. The birds aren't done yet, birders shouldn't be either."

Migration outlook May 14-20

May 14, midday:  Birders who have visited NW Ohio for the first time this spring have raved about the fine birding here.  They might be surprised to learn that the numbers actually have been below average; the typical year is better than this!  Weather conditions have not set up to deliver a really massive flight of birds yet.  Of course, the Magee region is not dependent on "fallout" conditions; good numbers and variety of migrants will concentrate along the lake shore all spring, regardless of the weather.  But a season like this one makes it hard to predict the best days. 

The last few days have produced fair numbers and excellent variety of migrants, highlighted by at least three Kirtland's Warblers, two of which were seen by large numbers of birders.  With light northerly winds now and no major weather systems nearby, I expect numbers to drop off a little during the next couple of days.  But by Thursday, the 17th, we'll start to see development of a good flow of air out of the south, and I expect to see a big influx of migrants toward the end of the week.  Friday and Saturday, the 18th and 19th, might be moderately big days. 

The species composition of migrants over the weekend suggested that there are still many migrants yet to arrive.  Whether or not they have any days of huge concentrations, there are still major numbers of second-wave migrants that have to come through (or over) the region.  So birding should continue to produce a lot of variety for the next couple of weeks, even on days when the sheer numbers are not stellar. 

I haven't heard of any Connecticut Warblers yet at the Magee boardwalk, but BSBO's main research site a few miles farther east had a couple today, so they should be found at the boardwalk soon.  With a push of migrants coming in, I would be surprised if Connecticuts were not found next weekend at Magee.  Their peak passage is during the third and fourth weeks of May.  Other late-season migrants that haven't shown up in numbers yet include Mourning and Canada warblers, Red-eyed Vireos, Gray-cheeked Thrushes, and Yellow-bellied and Alder flycatchers.  So the parade is far from over. 

Summary:  At this time of year, if you can go birding every day, do it!  But if you have to pick and choose, next Friday and Saturday (May 18-19) might produce more birds than Tuesday or Wednesday (May 15-16). Thursday is a toss-up at this point, but I'll try to post more after I study the weather maps some more.

Migration Outlook May 11 - 13

Thursday, May 10:  This week has been characterized by high diversity and fairly good numbers of birds.  Weather conditions have not been right for massive arrivals of migrants, but decent numbers have been coming in anyway.  By now, 36 of the 37 likely species of warblers have been recorded in the area; at least one and probably two Kirtland's Warblers were near the east end of the Magee Marsh boardwalk on Wednesday, May 9.  Only Connecticut Warbler (typically a late May migrant) has not yet been found this season, to my knowledge. 

As of today, the mix of species is still shifting over from first-wave to second-wave migrants.  Yellow-rumped Warblers are still very common, and second-wave birds like Magnolia Warblers are nowhere near peak numbers yet.  I expect this to change over the next couple of days.  Tonight (Thursday night) the winds are almost calm, the sky is clear, and the radar indicates that many birds are migrating.  I think that on Friday morning we'll see noticeable turnover, possibly with fewer birds around than today.  However, Friday night the winds should be southerly to southwesterly all night, and even though they won't be associated with a major frontal system, I think that a lot of migrants will come in overnight.  Saturday morning, May 12, there should be diurnal migrants flying along the lake shore (flocks of Blue Jays, goldfinches, and others).  Early in the morning, many nocturnal migrants such as warblers should be moving along the lake shore as well, shifting location as they seek the best habitat in which to spend the day.  By midday Saturday there may be a small flight of hawks, although most of the migrant hawks have gone through already.

Saturday's birding should produce an excellent mix of migrant songbirds, with species such as Magnolia, Bay-breasted, Chestnut-sided, Blackburnian, and Cape May warblers becoming common, and the first real push of Blackpoll Warblers and American Redstarts.  All five of the expected brown thrushes should be around, plus most of the vireos, more flycatchers than earlier in the month, Lincoln's Sparrows, and others. Late on Saturday the wind is probably going to shift around toward the northwest, so many of Saturday's birds are likely to be present still on Sunday, although perhaps less concentrated near the lake shore.

Birders in the area the last couple of days have noticed many large swarms of tiny insects over the marshes and woods near the lake.  Over the Magee boardwalk, their swarms in some places were large enough to create a loud whining hum.  These insects are midges (family Chironomidae).  They are completely harmless, unable to bite or sting, and they are very important as a food source for migrant songbirds.  They represent another reason why the wooded areas among the western Lake Erie marshes are so valuable as stopover habitat for migrants!  If you happen to see and / or hear these swarms of midges, don't be alarmed; just be glad that the migrating birds will be able to fuel up for their next flight. 

Update May 2, Outlook May 3-6

Things are looking up: this Prairie Warbler was enjoyed by scores of birders today (dozens of whom undoubtedly got better photos than this) at Magee Marsh. Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

May 2:  Today the Magee Marsh area had only fair numbers of migrants, but very good diversity.  I was out at dawn at Magee and numbers were very low at first, as often happens, but things picked up considerably by 8:00.  Numbers of Yellow-rumped Warblers were down from yesterday, numbers of Yellow Warblers and White-crowned Sparrows were way up, and there were good numbers of Tennessee, Nashville, and Black-throated Green warblers, the first serious arrival of Magnolia Warblers, plus others including Blackburnian, Cape May, and Blue-winged. Orioles were conspicuously common, many Eastern Kingbirds and hundreds of Blue Jays were on the move, and a few Bobolinks came over along the lake shore. A very cooperative Prairie Warbler was enjoyed by dozens of birders for an extended period near the east end of the boardwalk.  Between Magee Marsh and the BSBO main banding station 4 miles farther east, I heard of at least 23 warbler species being found today.

Other areas near Lake Erie also hosted many birds.  Early this morning, Forrest Rowland had good numbers and variety of migrants around the edge of the Lodge and Nature Center parking lot at Maumee Bay State Park, and Michael Godfrey reported similarly good results in the woods at East Harbor State Park, just east of Port Clinton.  So it appears that the migrants were more concentrated near the lakeshore today than they had been the day before, but White-crowned Sparrows and others were widespread inland as well. 

It still appears that Thursday morning, May 3, also will be very good in n.w. Ohio. After discussing the birds and weather with Mark Shieldcastle, it looks to me as if Thursday could go either of two ways.  We could have another day of good diversity but only moderate numbers: the southerly winds forecast for the overnight hours are not connected to major weather systems, so they may just bring in a generous sprinkling of birds.  Or the flight could surprise us, with the southerly winds bringing many birds along and possibly running into a shower or two near dawn, so that we see good diversity AND very large numbers.

According to current forecasts, southerly winds should continue through Thursday night, bringing more turnover and more arrivals Friday, before a wind shift slows things down on Saturday.  By that time, we should have enough birds in every patch of habitat locally to keep things interesting for the next week!

Summary: Thursday and Friday, May 3 and 4, should bring good variety, and numbers ranging from fair to excellent. Saturday May 5 might bring more arrivals, but is more likely to keep Friday's birds in place.

Monday update: beyond expectations

Update, Monday April 30: Last night I predicted that we wouldn't see many new migrants locally until Wednesday, based on detailed weather forecasts.  But this morning, there is a substantial arrival of new migrants. Ethan Kistler reports that there are at least 9 warbler species around BSBO (still mostly Yellow-rumps, but with a scatter of others including Blue-winged, Pine, and Northern Waterthrush).  Baltimore and Orchard orioles and Rose-breasted Grosbeak are around in numbers, and all three of those mid-sized songbirds are also present at the Magee boardwalk and elsewhere in the area.

What's the story? Winds at ground level were not favorable for migration last night, at least not in the local area, but the radar picture showed that some birds were definitely moving in areas to the south of us. Mid-sized songbirds like orioles, already present in good numbers just a little farther south, may have pushed on through without the help of favorable winds - or winds aloft may have been different from those at ground level.  Rain showers came through here from the west very early in the morning, and they may have knocked down some migrating birds locally also. 

Whatever the reasons, the birding today is better than anyone here had expected.  I still think that Wednesday and Thursday this week will bring bigger flights (see the post below this one), but if you have the chance to get out before then, there's no reason to wait for the "big" day.  The weather and the birds both have endless capacity to surprise us and to foil our predictions!

Migration Outlook April 30 - May 4: Prepare to call in sick

Northern Parula at Magee Marsh.  One of the many species likely to be seen the latter part of this week.  Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

April 29, 2012: Things have been slow for the last several days, with unfavorable winds, cooler temperatures, and some rain all acting against the arrival of migrants. Some birds have been moving anyway, despite the conditions; for example, down in central Ohio, a “fallout” of migrating Willets was noted yesterday, and scattered individuals of many migrant species have shown up near the lake shore. But things are about to change in a big way, with a major arrival of migrants expected this week.


The exact timing of things is still looking a bit tricky. I don’t expect many new birds on Monday, April 30, because winds will be northeasterly during the first part of Sunday night and easterly (with rain) later. During the day Monday, winds are supposed to shift to southeasterly and then southerly, and stay that way all day and into the evening. Then late in the evening Monday, winds are supposed to swing back around to the west and then the northwest. We’ll probably see some more diurnal migrants during the day (swallows, goldfinches, jays, shorebirds, maybe a few hawks), and some migrants may come in during the night Monday night, since there are many migrants just a short distance south of here in central Ohio. But Monday’s southerly winds are not a part of a major weather system, so I don’t expect Tuesday’s arrival to be huge.

However – Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, May 2, 3, and 4, look like they have great potential. Winds will shift back to the southeasterly or southerly sometime on Tuesday, and this time they’ll be associated with an air flow coming all the way up from the Gulf of Mexico, so it looks like a good setup to bring in a major flight. I can’t tell whether the bigger day will be Wednesday or Thursday, but considering how many birds must be dammed up to the south of us, Wednesday would be a good bet. Both days should be good, with Friday at least fairly good also. There should be many, many migrant songbirds in the woods close to the lake, and probably a good hawk flight developing by midday Wednesday.

I talked to Mark Shieldcastle, BSBO’s Research Director, and he said that at this point it’s hard to say whether this next big flight will be more like the end of the “first wave” or the beginning of the “second wave.” In other words, we could see a flood of Yellow-rumped and Palm warblers and White-throated Sparrows, with a generous scattering of singles of other species, or we could see an overall increase in variety, with numbers of many species. Or it could morph from the first wave to the second between Wednesday and Friday. Either way, if you can get out to the lake shore migrant traps during the latter part of the week, I’d recommend it. You might want to call in sick at work or school on Wednesday – serious case of the bird flu! And if you can’t get out until the weekend, that should be good too, with loads of recently-arrived birds in the woodlots.

For more information on the timing of major “waves” of migrants, as worked out by Mark Shieldcastle from BSBO research, see this link:

Migration outlook April 25-29

April 25: After several days of strong northerly or westerly winds, the wind is now lighter and coming from the south.  This region of Ohio has not seen a big arrival of migrants since last Friday, but this wind shift should allow some new birds to come in.  At the moment, the forecast is for the winds to continue more or less southerly through Wednesday night, so I expect a moderate number of new arrivals to be in the area on Thursday morning, April 26.  After that the wind is expected to go northerly again, at least through the weekend.  After tonight, on the basis of current weather forecasts, I don't expect any major waves of migrants to arrive until sometime next week. 

One thing to consider: the more the migration is held back, the bigger the flight when the wind finally shifts.  On the basis of current weather forecasts, next Wednesday, May 2, MIGHT produce a very big arrival here.  But of course the weather forecast could change many times in the next week!  I will keep an eye on the changing conditions and will post updated predictions in a few days.

Advice for those coming to bird the Magee / Ottawa region -- always consider wind direction when choosing where to look.  Most people have a tendency to go to the Magee boardwalk first.  But when the wind is strong out of the north, as it has been on some days recently, migrant birds may shift to more sheltered woodlots back away from the Lake Erie shoreline.  Larger patches of woods such as those at East Harbor State Park, behind the visitors' center at Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge, or farther west at Pearson Park (on Rt. 2 in Oregon, just east of Toledo) may hold more migrants when the lakeshore spots are blasted by north winds. 

Summary: Right now I expect more migrants to arrive Thursday morning, April 26 -- probably not a huge flight, but with enough variety to keep us going through the weekend.  Look for the next really major flight to arrive sometime around May 1, 2, or 3. 

Migration outlook April 18-22

Almost record-early for northwest Ohio, this male Scarlet Tanager entertained many birders at the Magee Marsh Wildlife Area boardwalk on April 16 and 17. Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

April 17: This past weekend developed about as predicted, with a moderate arrival of migrants on Saturday morning, bigger numbers Sunday morning, and an excellent hawk flight on Sunday afternoon.  Fierce west winds on Monday were discouraging to birders, at least, but some new migrants were found; late in the day, Ethan Kistler and John Sawvel found several surprising birds along the Magee boardwalk, including White-eyed Vireo, Louisiana Waterthrush, and a near-record-early Scarlet Tanager. 


At this stage the migrants seem to be mostly on a normal schedule, with large numbers of Yellow-rumped Warblers, White-throated Sparrows, Hermit Thrushes, and others present, and fair numbers of other early migrants such as Blue-gray Gnatcatchers and Rusty Blackbirds.  A few species seem to have moved through / moved out early (for example, Golden-crowned Kinglets already seem to be all but gone) and a few individual birds are showing up surprisingly early.  The BSBO main banding station, a few miles east of the Magee boardwalk, had a Blackburnian Warbler on April 16 (record-early for n.w. Ohio by one day), and over the weekend single Hooded Warblers were found both there and at Magee.  In other words, there are plenty of potential surprises for birders who are willing to get out and prowl the trails.


Looking ahead: Tonight (Tuesday night), breezes are light and variable and partly from the north, and I don't expect much turnover before Wednesday.  From Wednesday morning through Friday afternoon, the prediction is for the winds to be more or less southerly, with this flow becoming stronger and more associated with larger weather systems toward Thursday night.  Sometime late Friday, according to current forecasts, the wind will swing around to the north, ushering in much cooler temperatures for the weekend. 


Birding prediction:  In the migrant traps near Lake Erie, I don't expect many new migrants on Wednesday April 18, but new arrivals should come in on the mornings of Thursday and Friday, April 19 and 20.  There could be a fair hawk flight on Thursday or Friday, or both, with warm afternoons and southwest winds.  The migation will shut down Friday night, so there won't be many new birds on Saturday and Sunday, April 21 and 22, but most of the birds present late in the week should stick around.  The weekend's high temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s and low 50s, but there shouldn't be much rain, and it would be a good time to get out and enjoy the early-season migrants.

Update: Weekend still looks excellent

April 13, 2012: A couple of days ago I predicted that this weekend, April 14-15, looked to be very good here.  Current weather forecasts still support that. 

Winds should be southerly tonight (Friday night) and stronger out of the south-southwest from Saturday through at least Sunday night.  We should see good numbers of migrants arriving Saturday morning, possibly better numbers on Sunday and Monday.  By Monday night, winds are likely to shift again toward the northwest, shutting down the migration for a while.

Saturday, April 14, is likely to have showers and thundershowers.  Take appropriate safety precautions to avoid getting caught out in the open during a thunderstorm, but be aware that the birding can be excellent in periods of light rain, or between showers.  On Sunday, April 15, with less chance of rain and with southwest winds, I expect a good hawk flight near the Lake Erie shoreline.

Jason Lewis, manager of the Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge, has announced that Ottawa's auto tour will be open on Saturday, April 14, from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m.  This is a good opportunity to check out the refuge habitat.  Currently the biggest shorebird concentrations are on the unit called MS 4, with lesser numbers on MS 7.  See the map at this link to see where these are located. 

Summary: We expect good arrival of migrants Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, April 14-16.  Messy weather on Saturday, probably less so on Sunday.  Probably a good hawk flight, with Sunday the most likely day.  For species expected at this season, see my previous post.

Big Weekend Coming April 14-15

Leading the warbler parade: This weekend, large numbers of Yellow-rumped Warblers should arrive in the migrant traps of northwestern Ohio, with the adult males stunning in breeding plumage. Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

April 11, 2012: For the last several days, with only a brief break on Saturday night, conditions in northwest Ohio have not been favorable for migration. Winds have been mostly from the west-northwest, and temperatures have been a little below average for the dates (a major change from the above-average temperatures that dominated in March).  So for the last few days, the arrival of new migrants has been reduced to a trickle.

Conditions are setting up for that to change in a major way this weekend.  The exact timing of these weather events is still uncertain, but forecasts agree that an approaching high-pressure area will pass over and move to our east sometime on Friday.  By Friday night, with a high-pressure area to our east and a line of low-pressure centers to our west, there should be a strong southerly flow of air coming up to Ohio all the way from the Gulf Coast.  This flow should become even more pronounced through Saturday and then Saturday night.  We’re likely to get some showers as well, and if there are major rains to the south of us overnight they could put a damper on the migration.  But all indications are that we’ll have a very big arrival of migrant birds this Saturday and Sunday, April 14 and 15, when the current weather dam breaks and the birds can flow north. 

This early in the season, of course, we won’t see as much variety as we would in May.  There should be large numbers of kinglets (both species), the first big push of Yellow-rumped Warblers along with some Palm Warblers, probably more Hermit Thrushes and Brown Creepers, the first major pulse of White-throated Sparrows, and other typical April birds.  This flight should also produce a scattering of other warblers that are usually among the vanguard, such as Black-throated Green, Black-and-white, Nashville, and Northern Parula.  Orange-crowned Warbler, always scarce, often shows up with this early push.  This is also a good time to look for southern species overshooting their breeding ranges, such as Louisiana Waterthrush and Yellow-throated Warbler.

If the winds are southwesterly during the day on Saturday or Sunday, not just southerly or southeasterly, we might get another significant hawk flight, including the first big push of Broad-winged Hawks for the year. 

At any rate, all of the current weather forecasts now suggest that this will be an excellent weekend for migration in northwestern Ohio.  If you can arrange your schedule so that you can get out, it could be a lot of fun out there!

Many thanks to Mark Shieldcastle for sharing his expertise on the timing of expected bird species and on the effects of weather patterns on migration.  But if these predictions for the migration don’t bear out, I take full responsibility!

Magee Marsh: Cold Day Strategy

Bad photo of a good bird: "Yellow" Palm Warbler, the eastern subspecies of Palm Warbler, at Magee Marsh Wildlife Area on April 10, 2012. The vast majority of the Palm Warblers that migrate through Ohio are of the western subspecies. Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

April 10, 2012: With temperatures in the low 40s today, and with strong winds out of the west-northwest for the last couple of days, conditions were feeling a little less favorable for those migrant birds that had just arrived Saturday night.  When conditions are chilly and windy in the Magee Marsh area, we have a standard birding strategy: we look for birds on the downwind, sheltered side of the woods.  We move slowly and quietly, and watch for birds to be foraging relatively low.  That was the strategy that worked well this afternoon.  At the Magee Marsh boardwalk, migrants were concentrated toward the east end, foraging low along the east-southeast side of the woods, close to the canal that parallels that part of the boardwalk.

This afternoon that area held several dozen Yellow-rumped Warblers and smaller numbers of Fox Sparrows, Hermit Thrushes, White-throated Sparrows, Winter Wrens, Rusty Blackbirds, and Ruby-crowned Kinglets.  Our first local Palm Warbler of the season was there also, and it showed the color pattern of the eastern subspecies -  Setophaga palmarum hypochrysea, the "Yellow" Palm Warbler.  This is a fairly rare bird in Ohio; the vast majority of the Palm Warblers that migrate through here are of the "western" subspecies, Setophaga palmarum palmarum (which nests from western Quebec all the way west to the edge of the Canadian Rockies).  "Yellow" Palms nest mainly in eastern Quebec, the Maritime Provinces, and Maine, and they migrate mostly up the Atlantic Coast in spring. They tend to migrate earlier than "western" Palm Warblers, so perhaps it's not surprising that the earliest individual here was a stray from this population. Ethan Kistler and I had a good study of this individual, noting the completely yellow underparts and the broad chestnut streaks at the sides of the chest.  Palm Warblers from the expected "western" race should be here soon, since this is typically one of the earliest warblers to arrive. 

Easter weekend: Current birds, migration forecast, birding sites

Fox Sparrows are moving through northwest Ohio in good numbers now, concentrating near the Lake Erie shoreline. Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

April 5, 2012: During the last couple of days, with northeasterly winds, no obvious push of new migrants has occurred. Songbird migrants in the woodlots near Lake Erie have diminished in numbers, perhaps moving slightly inland, but there are still decent numbers of typical early migrants. Fox Sparrows are near peak numbers, and there are fair numbers of both kinglet species, Hermit Thrushes, Winter Wrens, Brown Creepers, and others. Rusty Blackbird numbers have dropped from highs a week or two ago, but small flocks are still present in most swampy woods, and Yellow-rumped Warblers are starting to appear in the migrant traps. A few Pine Warblers and Yellow-bellied Sapsuckers have been present. Purple Martins began arriving 9 days ago, and males are now scouting around areas with nest boxes (Sportsmen’s Center at Magee, Ottawa NWR visitors’ center, Maumee Bay State Park nature center). Brown Thrashers first appeared almost 2 weeks ago, and are now singing at several spots.


Several migrants have appeared on the early side of normal dates. Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, Common Yellowthroat, Marsh Wren, Virginia Rail, and Sora are among the examples, but these all will become easier to find in coming weeks.

Among the waterfowl, many of the wintering and migrant ducks have departed already, seemingly ahead of their usual schedule, but large numbers of Lesser Scaup and Ruddy Ducks are gathering just offshore on Lake Erie. Early shorebirds such as Pectoral Sandpiper, Wilson’s Snipe, and Lesser Yellowlegs are now numerous in patches of good habitat.

Migration forecast: at the moment, predictions are for the northeasterly winds to continue through Friday night, April 6, before shifting to the southwest sometime on Saturday. If this prediction holds, we won’t see any big influx of new migrants until Sunday, but the birds present now should continue through Saturday at least. If the southwest winds materialize as predicted and continue through Saturday night, Sunday should see better numbers of the early migrants mentioned above. Yellow-rumped Warblers should increase, one or two other warblers could show up, and this would be a prime time to look for Louisiana Waterthrush, a typically early “overflight” species.

NOTES ON BIRDING SITES


Magee Marsh Boardwalk: Kinglets, Brown Creepers, and Yellow-rumped Warblers are near the west end. Fox Sparrows and Winter Wrens are there in fair numbers, and some of them are singing – these are both great songsters, and this is the best time of year to hear them here.

Sportsmen’s Migratory Bird Center: The building is temporarily closed for repairs. The walking trail to the east of the parking lot is closed to protect a nesting pair of Bald Eagles, but the trail back behind the visitors’ center is open and offers good birding.

Black Swamp Bird Observatory: Good numbers of birds outside the window on wildlife. Purple Finches and Fox Sparrows have been there recently. If you’re in the area, please stop by and let us know what you’ve seen.

Benton-Carroll Road: This section of Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge has had good numbers of shorebirds recently. To reach this spot, go east on Route 2 from the entrance to Magee Marsh Wildlife Area for just under half a mile, and turn south on Benton-Carroll Road. Go south less than a quarter mile to a point where there are two gravel pulloffs on the right, next to an old barn. PLEASE NOTE THAT THERE’S ROOM FOR ONLY TWO OR THREE VEHICLES TO PARK HERE AT ONCE, AND PLEASE DO NOT ATTEMPT TO PARK ON THE ROAD OR THE ROAD EDGE! If the parking spaces are filled, please go on to another spot and check back later. But if you CAN park, the shallow flooded area and damp field to the west have held Lesser Yellowlegs, Pectoral Sandpiper, Dunlin, and other shorebirds recently. Ethan Kistler points out that this spot had more shorebird numbers and diversity in late March, surprisingly early in the season. But with daily turnover, numbers are changing constantly.

Stange Road: This area on the southwest edge of Ottawa NWR is always worth checking. The refuge did a controlled burn of part of the Stange Prairie recently, and the resulting open area should provide very good birding this spring; this is often a good habitat for migrating American Golden-Plovers. A Short-eared Owl was seen hunting over the edges of the burn area at dusk on some recent nights. From the observation platform at Stange and Krause roads, you can see into one of the refuge impoundments (a scope is very helpful here), and this impoundment has had a good variety of ducks and a few shorebirds recently. A Yellow-headed Blackbird was seen along Krause Road on March 31.

Metzger Marsh: The birds might disperse if there are many anglers out in their boats here, but as recently as April 3, the marsh still held a good variety of ducks (plus thousands of coots). Watch for Sandhill Crane along the drive in.

Maumee Bay State Park: The lake beach and the inland beach still have fair numbers of gulls, and would be worth checking for strays of other species. Forster’s and Common terns should show up any day. Wooded areas of the park, especially on the west side, have good numbers of Fox Sparrows, Hermit Thrushes, and other migrants, and the area around the nature center is always worth checking.

Hope to see you out there! Much of the information here is from Ethan Kistler, with additional points from John Sawvel, Kimberly Kaufman, and Ryan Lesniewicz.

Summary: Good numbers of typical early-season migrants around. This weekend, Sunday may have more birds than Saturday.