Next pushes of migrants expected: Wednesday and next weekend

Tuesday, May 14:  As predicted, today turned out to be a good day for migrants in n.w. Ohio.  The star of the day, without a doubt, was the Kirtland's Warbler found on the East Beach (Wildlife Beach) at Magee Marsh Wildlife Area, seen by many people through most of the day.  Diversity of warblers continued to be good elsewhere in the area as well, along with improved numbers of thrushes, vireos, and others.  

At this point (late evening on Tuesday), all indications are that there's a major movement of birds going on.  The radar picture shows huge numbers migrating over southwestern Ohio, and many of these birds will reach the Lake Erie shoreline by dawn, aided by fairly strong southerly winds.  So Wednesday, May 15, should be an excellent day in any migrant traps in northwestern Ohio.  We'll probably see a lot of turnover, with many birds departing as well as birds arriving, so total numbers may not be strikingly higher, but the mix of birds present should be clearly different from today's.  

After Wednesday morning, the forecast is for the winds to be much more variable for a couple of days, and I don't expect a lot of arriving migrants on Thursday or Friday.  But things could improve on Saturday, May 18, and especially on Sunday and Monday, May 19 & 20, with major weather systems bringing in a strong flow of air from far to the south.  

By Sunday, the composition of the migrant flocks near the lake shore should be noticeably different from what we've seen the last few days.  Numbers of Yellow-rumped, Palm, Nashville, and Black-and-white Warblers should drop. At the same time, we should see a pickup in numbers of Magnolia, Blackpoll, Canada, and Wilson's Warblers, plus Swainson's and Gray-cheeked Thrushes, Red-eyed and Philadelphia Vireos, and several of the flycatchers.  By this weekend we'll also have a reasonable chance of finding Connecticut Warbler, a late-May specialty, although the following weekend is closer to its peak dates.  So there are still plenty of reasons to go birding!

Next influx: May 14, more birds May 15

Quick note on Sunday, May 12:  Yesterday's good numbers and variety of birds are probably mostly pinned down by the chilly temperatures and northwest winds overnight.  Today, they'll be concentrated low on the downwind (east) side of the woods.

According to current weather forecasts, we should have a new arrival of migrants overnight Monday night, making for a new mix of birds on Tuesday, My 14.  But I expect that Wednesday, May 15, will be a much bigger day for numbers, with a lot of migrants coming in on higher temperatures and south winds. 

American White Pelicans were seen over Magee again yesterday.  Keep an eye on the sky for them to circle overhead any time, especially after the day warms up a little. 

Quick update: weekend May 11-12

Friday, May 10:  As predicted in the previous post, we had a good arrival of migrants yesterday and an excellent push today.  Highlights of today's flight included good looks at Golden-winged Warblers, Blue-winged Warblers, and at least 27 other warbler species, lurking Black-billed Cuckoos, surprising numbers of passing Pine Siskins, and a huge morning flight of Blue Jays.  At Magee Marsh, an "Audubon's Warbler" (western form of Yellow-rumped Warbler) was found near the west end of the boardwalk parking lot, and a Clay-colored Sparrow was found near the beginning of the Estuary Trail west of the parking lot.  

At this point (late afternoon) winds are still from the southwest, but they are likely to shift around to north during the night.  A high percentage of the birds now present in the area are likely to stick around, but they may move away from the immediate lake shore.  So if you go to traditional shoreline sites and don't see as many birds as you'd expected, try some spots a mile or two to the south.  The area around Black Swamp Bird Observatory continues to be productive, and Pearson Park (west of Maumee Bay State Park on S.R. 2) has held a lot of migrants also.  

In short, Saturday and Sunday may not be big flight days, but enough birds have arrived in the area that birding should be quite good.  I will update again late tonight if I get a chance. 

More birds coming May 9-10

Tuesday, May 7: After a big arrival of birds last Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, things have slowed down.  As usually happens after such an influx, the numbers of migrants in the woodlots along the lake shore have gradually declined for the last four days.  Variety continues to be good, and a handful of notable birds, faithful to particular spots, have been crowd-pleasers.  For example, a very early Mourning Warbler showed up on May 1 at the west end of the Magee boardwalk and has been seen every day since.  One or two Worm-eating Warblers have been similarly cooperative.  But by today, overall numbers have become a little sparse.  

Weather conditions haven't been good for producing new flights since last Friday.  Persistently easterly winds haven't been especially favorable for bringing in new birds, and persistent bad weather to the south of us seems to have blocked a lot of migrants from coming north.  Typical May arrivals like Indigo Bunting and Eastern Wood-Pewee are still essentially absent, and migrants that will be abundant later in the month, like Red-eyed Vireo and American Redstart, have hardly begun to arrive.  Probably a lot of these birds are just a few hundred miles south of us, waiting for the weather to break and the wind to shift.  

The news is that such a weather change is about to happen.  After talking with Mark Shieldcastle, research director for BSBO, I'm confident that we'll see a lot of new birds between now and the weekend.  Even though no really large-scale weather patterns are set up to deliver birds to us, the migrants dammed up just to the south of us should show up as soon as conditions for them improve.

The timing still looks a little uncertain.  But it's likely that a few new migrants will show up Wednesday morning, May 8, as the weather improves to the south of us.  During the night Wednesday night, winds will be quite variable but they'll probably be from the south for at least part of the night, favoring the arrival of many more birds on Thursday.  During the day Thursday, according to current forecasts, winds will swing to the west and back to the south, with a good southerly flow Thursday night, so on Friday the 10th we should see a major arrival of birds.  It's likely to rain on Friday also, but in between showers the birding should be excellent.  We should see a major arrival of Magnolia, Chestnut-sided, and Bay-breasted Warblers, the first decent push of flycatchers, many more Swainson's and Gray-cheeked Thrushes, a few Yellow-billed and Black-billed Cuckoos, and so on.  

In the meantime, for birding on Wednesday, before the big arrival starts: if the Magee boardwalk is quiet, go check out sites a little farther away from the lake shore.  The woods behind the visitors' center at Ottawa NWR are always worth checking, as is the trail behind BSBO.  The auto tour route at Ottawa NWR (open every day through the 12th) has been consistent for Red-headed Woodpecker, and has a few pockets of shorebirds.  East Harbor State Park, just east of Port Clinton, is well worth exploring; many warblers were found there Tuesday.  Pearson Park, west of the turnoff to Maumee Bay State Park, has had good migrant numbers as well.  Or go farther west and explore some of the other units of the Toledo Metroparks, such as Swan Creek or Oak Openings.

Summary: Things should pick up just a little on Wednesday, May 8. We should see many more birds on Thursday, May 9, and even more on Friday, May 10.  Friday is likely to be rainy, but the birding should be very productive between showers, so bring your rain jacket or umbrella, and some waterproof protection for your optics and field guides, and come on out to join the fun!

May 1 update: Explosion of diversity

Wednesday, May 1: Winds were favorable for the last two nights, so the birding improved somewhat yesterday and then by a huge amount for today's fortunate birders.  Between Magee Marsh and other nearby sites, at least 25 warbler species were found today, along with orioles, tanagers, vireos, thrushes, and other birds of the season.  

Mark Shieldcastle characterized today's flight as representing the second pulse of the first wave of neotropical migrants.  In terms of numbers, the flight was still dominated by Yellow-rumped Warblers, Palm Warblers, and White-throated Sparrows, with lesser numbers of Nashville Warblers and Black-throated Green Warblers, but today there were many other species represented by a few individuals each.  

More than 20 warbler species were found at the Magee Marsh boardwalk.  Some of the best sightings were near the west entrance, where a crowd-pleasing male Cerulean Warbler was present for most of the day along with a very early Mourning Warbler.  Blackburnian, Blue-winged, Prothonotary, Orange-crowned, Black-throated Blue, and Cape May warblers were represented by a few individuals each in this area.  Veery, Lincoln's Sparrow, and Scarlet Tanager were also along the boardwalk. 

At the small woodlot at the end of the road at Metzger Marsh, at least 13 warbler species were seen, including a Hooded Warbler, Cape May Warbler, and early Blackpoll Warbler.  Red-eyed Vireo and White-eyed Vireo were among the other migrants present.

Baltimore Orioles were widespread for the last couple of days, although still in small numbers.  Orchard Orioles were seen at several sites, including the east beach (Wildlife Beach) at Magee Marsh and Maumee Bay State Park.  The latter site also hosted a Prairie Warbler.

Magee boardwalk note: The Ohio Division of Wildlife, which administers the Magee Marsh Wildlife Area, has closed off a section of the parking lot adjacent to the new Bald Eagle nest.  The boardwalk is still open, and most of the parking lot is still open.  The closed area is clearly marked; please show your respect for the regulations of the area and stay out of this closed section.

Outlook for May 2-6: It appears that winds will be generally from the southeast over the next few days, with slightly cooler temperatures after Friday and an increasing chance of rain on Sunday and Monday.  We should continue to see more arrivals of migrants in the area, although perhaps not as dramatically as today, through next Monday, and then a shift to northwesterly winds may slow things down a bit.  Still, there are enough migrants present in the area now that the birding should be productive every day.  

April 30 - May 5: Lots of migrants coming!

Monday, April 29:  With rain yesterday and last night, songbird migration has been slowed down a bit, but some of the strong-flying shorebirds were on the move.  On April 28, a flock of 42 American Avocets was present for most of the day at Maumee Bay State Park, and a couple of Upland Sandpipers and some American Golden-Plovers showed up on Stange and Krause roads, just west of Ottawa NWR.  This morning, a Piping Plover was found on the beach at Camp Perry, west of Port Clinton.  Adverse weather conditions at this time in spring often result in interesting shorebird records like this.  

Weather conditions should be just about to turn from adverse to awesome.  Once again the forecast is for southerly winds, and this time I think they'll come through, with a fairly good flow of air from far to the south.  A lot of first-wave neotropical migrants should be staged a little to the south of us by now.  With the encouragement of winds, warmth, and mostly clear skies, large numbers of migrants should be moving during the next few nights.  Right now it looks as if the next three days - Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, April 30 through May 2 - all have very good potential, with daytime highs in the 70s and southerly winds.  The way the weather fronts are shaping up, there isn't any one of those three days that appears to have a clear advantage.  But the overall effect should be to pump a lot of birds into the area.  Diversity of warblers at places like Magee Marsh should jump from 5-to-10 species up to 15-to-20 species, and we should see a fine influx of thrushes, vireos, orioles, and all kinds of other wonderful spring migrants.  

By Friday, May 3, when The Biggest Week In American Birding kicks off, temperatures should be a little cooler again, with daytime highs in the 60s. Depending on the location of some approaching low-pressure areas on Thursday night, Friday may or may not be a really big day for migrants; but even if the Thursday night flight fizzles, we'll have plenty of migrants in the area by then.  And the diversity of migrants in the area through that first weekend should live up to this region's reputation.  

Summary: April 30 through May 2 should be the first really big days for diversity this season, and the variety and numbers should stay really good at least through May 5.  Beyond that point, I'll be studying the weather maps and hoping to pick out clearer patterns for the next prediction.  

April 25-30: Steady arrival of migrants expected

This male Hooded Warbler at Magee Marsh last weekend delighted observers by posing along the edge of the parking lot and the boardwalk. This is a regular "overflight" migrant, nesting mostly to the south of this region but showing up here in small numbers in early spring.

Wednesday, April 24:  With rain today and probably tomorrow, and cooler temperatures and westerly winds for the next two nights, migration may be slow temporarily, but not for long.  Starting Friday, April 26, temperatures should be getting warmer for the next several days, climbing into the 60s and to around 70 by Tuesday, April 30.  With winds predicted to be generally from the south, we should see many species arriving in northwestern Ohio.

Based on current weather forecasts, I expect the weekend of April 27-28 to bring good variety of species but not a huge number of individuals.  The southerly winds from Friday through Sunday don't look like they're associated with really large-scale weather systems.  By next Monday or Tuesday, April 29-30, with a  high-pressure area moving off to the east and a large low-pressure area approaching from the west, we should have a flow of air extending all the way up from the Gulf of Mexico, bringing a stronger flow of migrants.

At this point, the migrants present in the area are mainly those expected in mid to late April, dominated by Yellow-rumped Warblers, White-throated Sparrows, and Ruby-crowned Kinglets, but joined by less-common early species such as Orange-crowned Warbler and Pine Warbler.  "Overflight" migrants (those that mostly nest to the south of here, but which overfly their targets and show up here along Lake Erie) recently have included some cooperative and crowd-pleasing birds such as Hooded, Worm-eating, and Cerulean warblers and Louisiana Waterthrush.  Many other species have begun to show up as scattered singles, and new arrivals should be widespread throughout the region during the next few days. 

Brief summary: I expect the birding to be good every day from Friday on, with good variety over the weekend, and then even better variety and numbers next Monday and Tuesday, April 29 and 30.  We may not have any huge migration days during this period but they should all be good (and a good day along the Lake Erie shoreline is much better than a good day in most places!). Since we haven't had the exceptional heat of spring 2012, the trees haven't leafed out fully yet, so the birds are relatively easy to see (and to photograph), making for a very enjoyable time in the field.  We'll hope to see you out there!

Migration Outlook April 18-23

Pine Warbler is a classic April migrant at Magee Marsh and nearby areas in n.w. Ohio, and a few are in the area right now.  Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

Wednesday, April 17:  With a notable arrival of new birds during the last three days, the diversity of migrants in northwestern Ohio is growing rapidly.  Most warblers and other neotropical migrants are present in only small numbers, but the potential for surprising finds has ramped up considerably, and seekers are finding an exciting mix of birds.

Along with a push of Yellow-rumped Warblers and White-throated Sparrows on April 15-17, the area also received a good sprinkling of other birds, including Pine, Palm, Yellow, and Nashville warblers, Ovenbird, Louisiana Waterthrush, House Wren, Snowy Egret, Chimney Swift, and others.  A Prairie Warbler was enjoyed by many along the Magee Marsh boardwalk on April 16-17.

Tonight (Wednesday night) winds are from the east, but they are supposed to swing around to the south by sometime Thursday morning.  I doubt that will happen in time to produce many new migrants overnight, especially with rain happening to the south of us; but continuing southerly winds on Thursday might produce a daytime flight of hawks and other birds along the lake shore. With winds continuing southerly through Thursday night, Friday, and at least part of Friday night, we'll probably see a good arrival of new birds Friday morning, maybe Saturday morning as well.  But at the same time, we should watch for birds from the west.  A strong low-pressure system passing by to the north of us will create a major air flow from the west, so we might see strays such as American Avocet, Marbled Godwit, more American White Pelicans, or even Swainson's Hawk.  

Over the weekend we'll see winds shifting to the north on Saturday night (along with unseasonably cold temperatures) and then to the east-southeast on Sunday, shutting down much arrival of birds from the south or the west.  There will still be a lot of birds in the area, but they may be back away from the lake shore on Saturday and Sunday - so if the Magee boardwalk isn't active, you should check other spots a mile or two south, like the woods at Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge.  The auto tour at Ottawa is supposed to be open this weekend, Saturday and Sunday, from 8 to 4.  

On Monday, April 22, the winds will shift to more southerly again, especially overnight, and it's likely that we'll have a moderate arrival of migrants on Tuesday morning, the 23rd.  The number and variety of warblers and other neotropical migrants should continue to gradually increase, although I don't expect a massive arrival until a little later in the week.  

Summary:  Good numbers of early migrants are in the area, so every day should be rewarding for birding.  In the near term, the best days for new arrivals of migrants may be Friday, the 19th, and Tuesday, the 23rd, although the latter is still uncertain and the forecast may change.

Update: Migration outlook April 15-17

Brief update on Sunday afternoon, April 14: As predicted in the previous post (see that post for more details), numbers of birds dropped off somewhat this weekend, although the area still had a good diversity of migrants. Single Louisiana Waterthrushes, typical "overflight" species of early spring here, were found at Maumee Bay State Park on the 13th and at the boardwalk at Magee Marsh on the 14th.  

Current weather forecasts make it appear that Monday, April 15, will bring in a new wave of migrants, possibly with some first arrivals for the year in the morning and some movement of diurnal migrants during the day.  Birds will probably move again Monday night, so Tuesday, the 16th, might be even better.  Local concentrations of migrants on Tuesday morning will depend partly on the tracks and intensity of overnight storms.  Monday night is supposed to have good south winds and scattered thunderstorms, so it's possible that a lot of migrants might ride the winds into the general area and then get put down by storms.  There probably will be scattered rain during the day on Tuesday as well, but if you get out between storms, you might see a lot of birds.  If a thunderstorm hits your favorite local spot between midnight and dawn on Tuesday, it increases the chance that the spot will be hopping with migrants in the morning.  

By Tuesday night the wind is supposed to shift around to the northeast, so on Wednesday the 17th, migrants may be more generally distributed south of the lake shore, not so concentrated at shoreline sites.  

I'll try to update later with more of a look ahead, but for the moment I wanted to point out that both Monday and Tuesday appear to have good potential for migrants.

Migration outlook April 11-15

Wednesday, April 10:  Last Saturday night, conditions were ideal for migration, and Sunday morning produced a major influx of early migrants.  Golden-crowned Kinglets, Hermit Thrushes, Fox Sparrows, Yellow-rumped Warblers, Field Sparrows, and Yellow-bellied Sapsuckers all arrived in numbers, along with other typical birds of early April. The high numbers of birds have continued through the last three days, with even more birds apparently slipping in despite the unsettled weather.  By this morning, birding the Magee Marsh boardwalk, Greg Links found additional arrivals including 2 Pine Warblers, a Blue-gray Gnatcatcher, and major increases in Golden-crowned Kinglets (110), Ruby-crowned Kinglets (11), and Fox Sparrows (135!).  (The Lake Erie shoreline in n.w. Ohio is one of the best places in the world to see concentrations of Fox Sparrows in migration, and this is the peak of their passage here.) Other sites in the area, even several miles away from the lake shore, also held good numbers of migrants such as kinglets and several species of sparrows.  

With a lot of rain and northeasterly winds forecast for the next 36 hours, the birds are likely to be still around on Thursday and Friday, the 11th and 12th. The rain is supposed to move out by Friday morning, with winds switching around to the west or southwest. If the winds are southwesterly, we could see a decent hawk flight developing. The combination of held over migrants from today, plus daytime migrants moving, could make Friday a fine day to be out.  

On Saturday, April 13, they're forecasting a chance of snow flurries(!), with west winds and temperatures barely reaching the low 40s. But sometime Saturday night or Sunday, things will start to warm up, with a strong flow of air coming all the way up from the Gulf of Mexico, between a high-pressure area to the east and an approaching low-pressure area just to the west. The exact timing is a little uncertain, so it's hard to say whether we'll see a lot of new birds on Sunday or if Monday will be a much bigger day. At the moment, I'm afraid that Monday looks more likely, and it could be a really big day, with a lot of first-of-the-season arrivals.  Still, the whole weekend could be very good birding if you go out prepared for the weather!  

In regard to waterbirds: Shorebirds have started to show up in area wetlands, such as the Boss Unit of Ottawa NWR (Benton-Carroll Road just south of Route 2, just east of BSBO). Greater and Lesser Yellowlegs, Pectoral Sandpiper, and many Wilson's Snipes are in the area. On the 8th, Tiffanie Hayes photographed three American White Pelicans in flight over Fremont, just about 20 miles south of Magee Marsh, and these birds could still be somewhere in the general area. A single Black-necked Stilt has been seen a few times northeast of Fremont, mostly on private land, but it's worth watching for this species at any shallow wetland in the area. Forster's Terns and Caspian Terns are now back along Lake Erie, including at sites like Maumee Bay State Park. 

Summary: Lots of migrants are in the area now, and the birding should be very good from here on out. Based on current weather forecasts, Friday the 12th and Monday the 15th might be particularly good days.