Update: Migration outlook April 15-17

Brief update on Sunday afternoon, April 14: As predicted in the previous post (see that post for more details), numbers of birds dropped off somewhat this weekend, although the area still had a good diversity of migrants. Single Louisiana Waterthrushes, typical "overflight" species of early spring here, were found at Maumee Bay State Park on the 13th and at the boardwalk at Magee Marsh on the 14th.  

Current weather forecasts make it appear that Monday, April 15, will bring in a new wave of migrants, possibly with some first arrivals for the year in the morning and some movement of diurnal migrants during the day.  Birds will probably move again Monday night, so Tuesday, the 16th, might be even better.  Local concentrations of migrants on Tuesday morning will depend partly on the tracks and intensity of overnight storms.  Monday night is supposed to have good south winds and scattered thunderstorms, so it's possible that a lot of migrants might ride the winds into the general area and then get put down by storms.  There probably will be scattered rain during the day on Tuesday as well, but if you get out between storms, you might see a lot of birds.  If a thunderstorm hits your favorite local spot between midnight and dawn on Tuesday, it increases the chance that the spot will be hopping with migrants in the morning.  

By Tuesday night the wind is supposed to shift around to the northeast, so on Wednesday the 17th, migrants may be more generally distributed south of the lake shore, not so concentrated at shoreline sites.  

I'll try to update later with more of a look ahead, but for the moment I wanted to point out that both Monday and Tuesday appear to have good potential for migrants.