Migration Prediction, Sept. 15 to 20

So far this fall season, conditions have not been ripe for a major fallout of migrants in northwestern Ohio. Good numbers of birds are passing through, but no days so far have produced exceptional numbers. As far as I can tell from the weather forecasts, that general situation will continue through this next weekend.

Tonight (Monday night, Sept. 14) may be the best conditions for bringing a strong flight, with winds out of the northwest for at least part of the night, so there may be a good influx of migrants right along the Lake Erie shoreline on Tuesday morning. After that, most of the forecasts suggest that the wind will be light and variable out of the east or northeast for most of the week. There will still be a lot of migrants around, but they’re likely to be in scattered flocks within two or three miles of the lake shore, not concentrated in woodlots on the lake shore itself. So the key to successful birding will be to cover a variety of areas, and to keep moving until you find a concentration of migrants.

Of course, weather forecasts can change, and I’ll be watching to see if conditions seem to favor a big arrival of birds on a particular day. And even on a slow day, as I've pointed out before, there are more migrants to be seen here than in most areas of North America.