More migrants coming April 4

Tuesday, April 2:  Conditions are looking good for an arrival of migrants this Thursday, April 4, and for more birds to show up over the weekend of April 6 and 7.

Currently there are good numbers of early migrants in the area.  Golden-crowned Kinglets, Brown Creepers,  Fox Sparrows, Winter Wrens, and others are increasing, and Rusty Blackbird numbers have been excellent in recent days.  Great Egrets and Tree Swallows have arrived in force, and the first Purple Martins are being reported.  So another arrival of migrants will pump up the birding opportunities that are already present.

To focus on the short-term prediction:  Local winds are supposed to be variable, but more or less northerly, through tonight and most of the day Wednesday.  On Wednesday evening, however, winds are supposed to shift to the south.  With clear skies and southerly winds overnight Wednesday night, we're likely to see an arrival of migrants Thursday morning, especially where birds are concentrated near the Lake Erie shoreline.  In addition to the species mentioned in the preceding paragraph, we should look for Hermit Thrush and Yellow-rumped Warbler in wooded areas, and American Pipit and Vesper and Savannah sparrows in open habitats.  

The forecast for the day on Thursday is for temperatures reaching the mid-50s and winds from the southwest, so there should be a good flight of daytime migrants, especially Turkey Vultures and hawks.  Vantage points near the lake shore, such as the hawk tower at Magee Marsh Wildlife Area or the sledding hill at Maumee Bay State Park, should be worthwhile, especially near the middle of the day. 

Winds will probably shift again from Thursday night to Saturday morning, but they're predicted to go back to southerly on Saturday, and stay southwesterly during Saturday night.  On Sunday, despite the chance of showers, there are likely to be more migrants around.  The weather pattern for Saturday night looks as if there will be a flow of air all the way from the Gulf Coast north to the Great Lakes, so there could be some migrants coming in from a considerable distance: perhaps some unusually early arrivals, perhaps some of the regular early spring "overflight" species such as Louisiana Waterthrush or Yellow-throated Warbler.

Of course, all of these weather forecasts are subject to change.  But based on current forecasts, I expect Thursday the 4th and Sunday the 7th to produce some notable movements.  Even if they don't, we're getting to the time of year when it's worthwhile to get out whenever possible. Hope to see you out there!

Weekend Forecast: March 29-31 should be very good

Thursday night, March 28:  Easter weekend is shaping up to be very good in northwestern Ohio.  Late this evening, the national radar picture showed a large movement of birds in southwestern Ohio, and we can expect many of those birds to arrive in northwestern Ohio over the next three days.  

Winds are variable at the moment and will shift around during the day and night Friday, with winds mostly coming from the north, but they should switch to southerly by sometime Saturday morning and should stay that way through much of Sunday.  On Saturday, with clear skies and warmer temperatures (low 50s) forecast, southerly winds could produce an excellent hawk flight near the Lake Erie shoreline.  Turkey Vultures are likely to be the main species, but there should also be numbers of Red-shouldered, Red-tailed, and Cooper's hawks, Bald Eagles, and a chance for scarcer species such as Merlin or even Golden Eagle.  

Among the smaller birds, some typical early season migrants such as Rusty Blackbird, Fox Sparrow, and Winter Wren should increase in numbers.  To a lesser extent, we should also see an influx of birds like Hermit Thrush, Eastern Towhee, Yellow-rumped Warbler, Purple Finch, and Golden-crowned Kinglet.  The timing of their arrival is hard to predict, but based on current weather forecasts, there could be a big arrival overnight Saturday night.  Sunday the 31st shows at least a 50 percent chance of rain, but in between showers, there could be a lot of birds to enjoy.  

Very large numbers of ducks are still in the area, both on inland marshes and on Lake Erie.  Some of these may begin to depart this weekend, but enough will still be around to add to the mix of what should be a very satisfying weekend.  

And, of course, this is a good time of year for rarities to start showing up.  Just to the east of our main area, at the Huron River mouth, Dave Clark found an Eared Grebe earlier this week, and it was apparently still present today.  In adjacent states, an amazing 40-plus Little Gulls have been at Presque Isle in northwestern Pennsylvania, and an equally amazing Spotted Redshank was found today at Goose Pond, Indiana.  Clearly, anything is possible!  If you find anything rare this weekend, please let the people at Black Swamp Bird Observatory know about it.  

Early Spring Migrants

The boardwalk at Magee Marsh Wildlife Area on March 22, 2013: Waiting for spring.

March 22, 2013: At this time last year, northwest Ohio was experiencing temperatures in the 80s. This year's weather has been more "normal," or even a bit colder than normal, with recent temperatures mostly below freezing.  The forecast calls for cool weather for the next week, with highs in the 30s and 40s, but the movement of early spring migrants is well under way and the birding is great.

Waterfowl are the stars of the show now, with nearly 30 species of ducks, geese, and swans currently present in n.w. Ohio.  As of today, some inland areas such as Metzger Marsh and the causeway through Magee Marsh were partly frozen, but large numbers of ducks were concentrated in the open areas.  Wood Ducks have returned in large numbers, many Redheads and Northern Pintails are passing through, and Blue-winged Teal have begun to show up.  The pond at the boardwalk at Magee Marsh has been hosting surprising numbers of ducks, especially in the evenings, and Bob Foppe found a male Eurasian Wigeon there on March 21 (it wasn't seen there on the 22nd, but it's likely to be still somewhere in the area).  The Boss Unit of Ottawa N.W.R. (parking lot on Benton-Carroll Road south of State Route 2) has some standing water and a lot of dabbling ducks, although a scope is very helpful for seeing them.  Scoping from the new observation platform today, I made a careful count of 108 Wood Ducks back along the edge of the woodlot.

The nearshore waters of Lake Erie are also full of ducks now, with particularly large flocks of Common Mergansers and Lesser Scaup (and very small numbers of Greater Scaup mixed in).  Horned Grebes are also moving through, although in smaller numbers.  Viewpoints on the lake such as Maumee Bay State Park, the end of the road at Metzger Marsh and Magee Marsh, East Harbor State Park, and Marblehead Lighthouse State Park are all worth checking.  The open waters of Sandusky Bay are also hosting huge numbers of scaup and other birds. 

Other migrants are also showing up.  American Woodcocks have returned, and can be heard doing their flight songs at night in any location with open fields and swampy woods, such as Magee Marsh and Maumee Bay.  Wilson's Snipes have arrived, and Pectoral Sandpipers should show up soon.  Eastern Towhee and Eastern Phoebe were both found along the Magee Marsh boardwalk this week.  Numbers of migrant Rusty Blackbirds are increasing, and this is a good time to study this declining species.  

Aside from a good movement on March 9-10, raptor migration has not been impressive so far.  To create a good movement along the Lake Erie shoreline, we need moderate winds from the southwest.  Predictions change from day to day, of course; but at the moment the long-range forecast shows southwest winds happening next on Saturday, March 30.  If it works out that way, that could be a fine flight day for hawks and other birds.  But if your schedule is flexible, keep an eye on the weather and be ready to head to the lake shore if the wind goes to the southwest before then!

Mark Shieldcastle's prediction for Memorial Day weekend, May 25-28

May 24, afternoon:  This is a direct quote from Mark Shieldcastle, research director for Black Swamp Bird Observatory.


"Birding by ear may be the trend for this weekend with vegetation in full summer finery. Weather patterns appear favorable for movement the next few days and the timing for the Third Wave is upon us. BSBO's Navarre banding station has been witnessing the slow shift to the final wave the past couple of days. Magnolia Warbler has gone from males to females with the past couple of days of southerly wind. 15 - 25 species of warbler are still being recorded daily. Red-eyed Vireos, Gray-cheeked Thrush, American Redstart, Canada, Wilson, and Mourning Warblers have all increased. With predicted weather, the Empid flycatchers should come in force this weekend signaling the final major push of migrants. Now is the time for cuckoos, Cedar Waxwings, and if you are still haunted by the Connecticut Warbler then make some time to check out your favorite local habitat or make another sojourn to the Lake Erie marshes. The birds aren't done yet, birders shouldn't be either."

Update: Rarity focus

Distant view of White-faced Ibises at Metzger Marsh, Ohio, on May 16, 2012.

Update Friday, May 18:  Areas near the Lake Erie shoreline in NW Ohio continue to have good variety and only fair numbers of migrants through this week. Today I took a magazine editor on a brief visit to the Magee boardwalk, and in a short time we saw over a dozen warbler species plus Red-eyed Vireos and a brilliant male Scarlet Tanager, so the walk was a success.  But overall numbers have not been huge, and that doesn't look likely to change soon.  Southerly or southeasterly winds are likely to prevail for the next few nights, and migrants should be moving, but I'll be surprised if we see major concentrations of birds in the migrant traps between now and Tuesday.  (There's a chance that rains Monday night could put down good numbers here on Tuesday morning, but it's too early to tell about that.)

Late-season migrants are still not present in major numbers. Willow Flycatchers are showing up on nesting areas (such as in the dogwood scrub-shrub areas near BSBO), and just a handful of Yellow-bellied and Alder flycatchers have been found.  Wilson's, Canada, and Mourning warblers are present in small numbers.  Several Connecticut Warblers have been found locally this week.  To search for this species, there are two good strategies:  (1) arrive early in the morning and cover a lot of ground near wooded areas, listening for the distinctive song; (2) arrive any time and spend your time moving slowly, peering back into the woods, at areas where you can see the forest floor, to watch for this warbler walking on the ground.

A few local rarities found in the last three days were still present on Friday and would be worth looking for this weekend. 

A Least Tern was found by Sherrie Duris at Maumee Bay State Park on the 16th; it has been spending its time mostly along the Lake Erie beach.  This weekend, the beach is likely to be crowded with people, so it would be best to look for this bird first thing in the morning. 

Three White-faced Ibises were found at Metzger Marsh on the 16th, seen from the second pulloff past the major turn on the way in.  These birds flew away in the direction of Ottawa NWR late on Wednesday, but reappeared at Metzger on Thursday.  On Friday, seven dark ibises were found at Ottawa NWR, on unit MS 8b; according to reports I heard, these probably included at least four White-faced and two Glossy ibises.  In early afternoon, these birds were seen flying away in the direction of Metzger Marsh. 

The auto tour at Ottawa NWR will be open Saturday and Sunday, May 19 and 20, from 8 to 4.  Anyone who is really keen to see these ibises might want to check Metzger first thing in the morning, then go through the auto tour.  Note that the auto tour now starts from the visitors' center, not from the old east parking lot.  The road goes north from the visitors' center to the south edge of MS 8b before turning west, and the ibises might be to the east of that point, so scan to your right before continuing on the tour.  See our maps of the refuge under the BSBO birding pages ("birding hotspots: directions and maps") for clarification of this.

If you are carrying a smartphone that will work with Twitter, it's still worthwhile to follow @BiggestWeek, because we are still posting updates about rarities and other notable finds there. 

Update: Wednesday could be good

Update on May 15: Looking at the weather forecasts, it now appears that Wednesday morning, May 16, could have possibilities for at least a mild "fallout" of birds locally in NW Ohio.  Tonight is supposed to start off with mostly clear skies and warm temperatures, with winds more or less southerly for the first part of the night, and then isolated thunderstorms are supposed to move through after midnight.  Depending on the timing and location of these storms, they could put down numbers of migrants practically anywhere in the region, not necessarily along the lake shore.  If you have the opportunity to go birding Wednesday morning, look to see where it has rained overnight, because those places could be hopping with warblers and other migrants. 

Looking ahead, it still appears that the coming weekend could have a strong movement of birds, perhaps especially on Sunday and Monday, as low-pressure areas to the west of us set up a strong southerly air flow coming up from the Gulf.  More details later. 

Migration outlook May 14-20

May 14, midday:  Birders who have visited NW Ohio for the first time this spring have raved about the fine birding here.  They might be surprised to learn that the numbers actually have been below average; the typical year is better than this!  Weather conditions have not set up to deliver a really massive flight of birds yet.  Of course, the Magee region is not dependent on "fallout" conditions; good numbers and variety of migrants will concentrate along the lake shore all spring, regardless of the weather.  But a season like this one makes it hard to predict the best days. 

The last few days have produced fair numbers and excellent variety of migrants, highlighted by at least three Kirtland's Warblers, two of which were seen by large numbers of birders.  With light northerly winds now and no major weather systems nearby, I expect numbers to drop off a little during the next couple of days.  But by Thursday, the 17th, we'll start to see development of a good flow of air out of the south, and I expect to see a big influx of migrants toward the end of the week.  Friday and Saturday, the 18th and 19th, might be moderately big days. 

The species composition of migrants over the weekend suggested that there are still many migrants yet to arrive.  Whether or not they have any days of huge concentrations, there are still major numbers of second-wave migrants that have to come through (or over) the region.  So birding should continue to produce a lot of variety for the next couple of weeks, even on days when the sheer numbers are not stellar. 

I haven't heard of any Connecticut Warblers yet at the Magee boardwalk, but BSBO's main research site a few miles farther east had a couple today, so they should be found at the boardwalk soon.  With a push of migrants coming in, I would be surprised if Connecticuts were not found next weekend at Magee.  Their peak passage is during the third and fourth weeks of May.  Other late-season migrants that haven't shown up in numbers yet include Mourning and Canada warblers, Red-eyed Vireos, Gray-cheeked Thrushes, and Yellow-bellied and Alder flycatchers.  So the parade is far from over. 

Summary:  At this time of year, if you can go birding every day, do it!  But if you have to pick and choose, next Friday and Saturday (May 18-19) might produce more birds than Tuesday or Wednesday (May 15-16). Thursday is a toss-up at this point, but I'll try to post more after I study the weather maps some more.

Migration Outlook May 11 - 13

Thursday, May 10:  This week has been characterized by high diversity and fairly good numbers of birds.  Weather conditions have not been right for massive arrivals of migrants, but decent numbers have been coming in anyway.  By now, 36 of the 37 likely species of warblers have been recorded in the area; at least one and probably two Kirtland's Warblers were near the east end of the Magee Marsh boardwalk on Wednesday, May 9.  Only Connecticut Warbler (typically a late May migrant) has not yet been found this season, to my knowledge. 

As of today, the mix of species is still shifting over from first-wave to second-wave migrants.  Yellow-rumped Warblers are still very common, and second-wave birds like Magnolia Warblers are nowhere near peak numbers yet.  I expect this to change over the next couple of days.  Tonight (Thursday night) the winds are almost calm, the sky is clear, and the radar indicates that many birds are migrating.  I think that on Friday morning we'll see noticeable turnover, possibly with fewer birds around than today.  However, Friday night the winds should be southerly to southwesterly all night, and even though they won't be associated with a major frontal system, I think that a lot of migrants will come in overnight.  Saturday morning, May 12, there should be diurnal migrants flying along the lake shore (flocks of Blue Jays, goldfinches, and others).  Early in the morning, many nocturnal migrants such as warblers should be moving along the lake shore as well, shifting location as they seek the best habitat in which to spend the day.  By midday Saturday there may be a small flight of hawks, although most of the migrant hawks have gone through already.

Saturday's birding should produce an excellent mix of migrant songbirds, with species such as Magnolia, Bay-breasted, Chestnut-sided, Blackburnian, and Cape May warblers becoming common, and the first real push of Blackpoll Warblers and American Redstarts.  All five of the expected brown thrushes should be around, plus most of the vireos, more flycatchers than earlier in the month, Lincoln's Sparrows, and others. Late on Saturday the wind is probably going to shift around toward the northwest, so many of Saturday's birds are likely to be present still on Sunday, although perhaps less concentrated near the lake shore.

Birders in the area the last couple of days have noticed many large swarms of tiny insects over the marshes and woods near the lake.  Over the Magee boardwalk, their swarms in some places were large enough to create a loud whining hum.  These insects are midges (family Chironomidae).  They are completely harmless, unable to bite or sting, and they are very important as a food source for migrant songbirds.  They represent another reason why the wooded areas among the western Lake Erie marshes are so valuable as stopover habitat for migrants!  If you happen to see and / or hear these swarms of midges, don't be alarmed; just be glad that the migrating birds will be able to fuel up for their next flight. 

Monday update: LOTS of migrants

Monday, May 7, quick update: There is a major increase in activity along the Magee Marsh boardwalk and other spots close to Lake Erie.  Last night's winds were not very helpful to the birds but didn't impede their progress much either, and rains near dawn seem to have put down a lot of birds.  Numbers of most warbler species, thrushes, and other migrants are much higher today than yesterday.  See post below this one for more general details about the week ... but today is very good, so if you can get out between rain showers, it is worth doing.

If you're going in toward the Lodge at Maumee Bay State Park, watch for Bobolink along the entrance road ... a male was doing display flights there a short while ago.

Migration outlook May 7-12

Prothonotary Warbler at Magee Marsh. They seemed to come in a little later than expected this year, but they are now on territory along the Magee boardwalk. Photo by Kenn Kaufman.

Sunday, May 6, evening: The last few days have developed about as expected.  We had decent arrivals of birds Wednesday through Friday mornings, May 2-4 (especially on Thursday, May 3).  Then the wind shifted to more northerly; fewer birds arrived on Saturday and today, but a good variety of species could be found, with birds staying over from the big push of the preceding days. 

At this point in the migration season, birds are going to be moving if they can, even if conditions are not totally favorable.  So, for example, more Prothonotary Warblers have arrived in a noticeable way at the Magee boardwalk just within the last couple of days, bucking the northerly winds to come in and set up territories.  This evening, the winds are relatively light and from the east, so we'll probably see more arrivals on Monday morning, May 7 -- probably not a major flight, but perhaps with increasing numbers of some "second-wave" birds like Magnolia Warbler. 

After tonight, the winds are likely to go more northerly again for a few days.  Current weather forecasts are a bit sketchy, but the wind may not go back to southwest until Friday, May 11.  If it works out that way, we should continue to see good variety but only moderate numbers this week, with new individuals trickling in and many of the current crop of migrants staying where they are.  With migrants being held up south of us by these conditions, when the wind does shift it could be a good setup for a big arrival of birds toward the end of the week, even if the southwesterly winds on Friday are not associated with a major weather system.  So next weekend could be very good, but it's early to say for sure.

A few local notes: An Upland Sandpiper has been seen from the west side of Stange Road, just s.w. of Ottawa NWR, in a large open field north of Rt. 2.  With northerly winds this weekend, the sheltered woods behind the visitors' center at Ottawa NWR were productive, with many warblers including Canada, Wilson's, and Hooded.  At Metzger Marsh, near the last major bend on the way in, Virginia Rails and Soras have been vocal and occasionally seen.  On Saturday morning, skilled observers had a brief look at a Black Rail there.  This species is very rare here and very elusive, and it might not be seen again, but it's worth thinking about if you're in the area.  At Metzger Marsh, please do not park on the road -- use the pulloffs along the side of the road beyond the last major bend. 

Twitter: If you're coming to the area and have a smartphone that will run this app, it's very worthwhile to follow BiggestWeek on Twitter.  Guides for The Biggest Week In American Birding are "tweeting" the locations of interesting birds, both on the Magee boardwalk and throughout the area. With so many keen birders in the region right now, even a "slow" day will produce many great sightings, and the Twitter feed gives you a chance to find out quickly when something new is spotted.  If you don't have a smartphone, you can see the Twitter feed on the large screens at Black Swamp Bird Observatory and at the registration area at the Lodge at Maumee Bay State Park.  Or you can get the Twitter feed directly to your computer when you're online; look for the link at http://www.biggestweekinamericanbirding.com/